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Bond Outlook [by bridport & cie, June 27th 2007]

Risky and unpredictable, covenant-lite loans are here to stay.

Barclays Global Investors created the first index strategy in 1971, pioneered the first quantitative active equity fund in 1978 and has long dominated the market in index tracking, more recently through its iShares exchange traded fund products. Caroline Allen examines how the firm is now moving to secure the middle ground of the risk spectrum, developing its range of so-called 120/20 or partial shorting 130/30 funds.

Wealth managers will need to take account of a changing client base to sustain business growth in coming years. Caroline Allen picks out some details from the latest report from Barclays Wealth Insight.

JPMorgan is keeping its view of debt market technicals at positive following a June 18-20 survey of 253 investors managing $451 billionn in EM fixed income and FX assets.

Clearing and settlement in Europe is a complex and fragmented environment. But it is clear from the panel of experts gathered by Global Investor that progress is being made to break down the barriers to the creation of an efficient, streamlined process and a level playing field. Representatives from Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Citi, SEB and Equiduct met at the Park Hyatt Hotel in Paris to discuss what progress has been made and what challenges lie ahead.

Breaking its usual pattern of going it alone, Bloomberg has partnered with analytics firm NumeriX to offer clients the ability to use an integrated pricing and risk platform that functions with Microsoft Excel.

Another week, another hire at HVB – part of the UniCredit markets and investment bank operation. Now that its internal organisation has been sorted out, the bank appears determined to become a major play in FX and it has been steadily hiring sales people for the past few months. This week news comes that it has poached the highly-regarded Sue Rasmussen from ANZ. Rasmussen served 12-years at the Australian bank and her last role was co-head of FX sales. She resigned on Monday and will take up a role in fund sales at HVB, reporting to Steve Turner, HVB bank’s global head of hedge fund sales. The grapevine says that HVB has stopped hiring yet and will continue to hire when the right people become available.

New appointments: Peter Snasdell and Peregrine Hood. Meanwhile in Paris, the bank set up a dedicated central bank and official institutions desk on 1 June.

I was recently at a breakfast meeting when a senior FX player explained to me why implied volatility was so low. His view was that “idiot retail traders” from Asia kept selling it because they didn’t understand the market; ironically, he added, the idiots were getting it right.

Chris Willcox and Matt Zames.

I don’t like upsetting people, I really don’t. But what I dislike even more is people upsetting me.