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IN NOVEMBER 2001, a 73-year-old businessman defeated an anti-US ex-president to lead a troubled central American country. The news was celebrated in the US, but more because Daniel Ortega had lost again than because of any hopes surrounding Enrique Bolanos. What no one-expected was that Bolanos would turn out to be something of a revolutionary himself, embarking on a crusade to clean up Nicaraguan politics and rehabilitate his country not only in the eyes of the world, but, more important, in the eyes of its own citizens.

Argentina is coming out of crisis, but few investors have noticed. Those that have can do little to profit from their knowledge. But there's a long way to go and the aspirations of the 1990s are unlikely to be fulfilled.

In volatile equity markets, more deals than ever are being done with no documentation and little if any due diligence. Are banks taking too many risks?

Despite investment banks' profits being under pressure, with share prices on the slide, bonuses and jobs being slashed and a general state of panic and insecurity throughout the industry, all the major banks will still be shelling out for a box or suite at this month's CSFB-sponsored Hong Kong Rugby Sevens.

A unified European securities trading infrastructure finally appears to be within reach. But will the market appreciate it when it gets what it's always asked for? After all, inefficiencies present opportunities to make money. If cross-border trading gets cheaper the benefit should be passed back to the end investor. Yet banks and fund managers, under pressure to slash costs, might not be ready to hand it over.

By 2005 Germany's Landesbanken will lose their state support. Then, say the private commercial banks, the country's banking system will benefit from a level playing field. But none of the banks will be able to turn a profit if they don't make radical changes.

Foreign exchange

Director of research, Hermitage Capital Management

Following three years of disappointing earnings - and plummeting stock prices - leading Greek banks hope 2003 will be a turnround year. Their hope is based on a firm foundation absent elsewhere in Europe: strong loan growth underpinned by a growing economy and a largely under-leveraged household sector. Tapping that customer base should finally boost their bottom line.

Asian recovery belies slack global growth

Credit derivatives

UK prime minister Tony Blair is facing the biggest test of his political career as he tries to persuade the British public to support military action against Iraq in alliance with the US. But his government is not just dealing with a major foreign policy problem. The UK economy is also under scrutiny.