Search results for

The euro may cause glitches in some areas of the capital markets, but probably relatively few in swaps or derivatives, thanks to some smart thinking last year, says Christopher Stoakes

It has taken almost two decades of reform but the People's Bank of China (PBOC) believes 1999 will at last see it join the ranks of the world's independent central banks. The big revamp, long-awaited and finally announced towards the end of last year, involves replacing the bank's provincial-level structures with nine regional entities which will answer only to Beijing.

It was before the wave of strikes that hit France in December that I glided into the Gare du Nord on one of France's ultra-smooth, ultra-expensive (to the taxpayer, not the traveller) TGVs. I had two questions begging answers. First, would the Franco-German axis in Europe hold? And second, would France meet the Maastricht criteria for a European single currency by the end of 1997?

By the time you read this, the most important development in global finance in 50 years will have taken place. At vast expense to private sector banks and non-financial institutions - who have borne almost the entire burden of a task made unnecessarily difficult by the long-evident inability of Europe's governments to act pragnatically or in concert - the euro has been created. Sceptics are still concerned that the costs will far outweigh the benefits. But the apparent altruism of the private sector should tell them something.

Telecoms companies kept the capital markets afloat during the second half of 1998. They could play a similar role this year. Charles Olivier considers the industry's financing plans for 1999.

Poll of Polls: Warburg's excellently average performance

Issuer: Republic of Finland

After the favourable economic climate of 1997 when the Netherlands took the lead in the economic upturn in continental Europe, preliminary data for 1998 shows that the international situation is taking its toll and Dutch economic growth is returning to trend. What has happened and has the "Dutch miracle" come to an end?

The Dutch stock market underperformed its European peers in 1998 and 1999 will be a difficult one too. However, concepts of shareholder value are well established in the Netherlands and the small-cap sector looks like an outperformer.

Don't knock it. Warburg Dillon Read, the investment banking arm of UBS, comes out the clear winner in this January's poll of polls. Its virtue is consistency and coverage world-wide. While the US houses have their strengths at home, not one can consistently outperform WDR in every market. WDR may have benefited from the effects of the merger on poll results. But that doesn't detract from its commanding position in every major category: underwriting, trading and advising. It's only major weakness is mergers and acquisitions. Merrill Lynch, last year's number one, is let down by results in Euro-commercial paper, foreign exchange and risk management. Deutsche Bank continues to rise overall, but its weaknesses are equity research, Asian equity and advisory. Citigroup with its Salomon addition looks good on paper, but its low-scoring departments are Eurobonds, equities, and credit and equity research. Last year's second half shuffled the pack and we look forward to a wildly different pecking order next January. David Shirreff reports.

A strange side-benefit of the Asia crisis: Hong Kong becomes less brash, and the service improves. "I've always preferred living in Hong Kong during a recession," says John Manser, the great taipan of Robert Fleming, from the comfort of his London office.

The end of Jardine Fleming