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Making up the rules in Brazil

Must the IMF grow in size just to stomach the next bail-out, or should it reinvent itself as a tougher, global rating agency of countries and their banking systems? Such an IMF would not whisper advice into the ear of crony capitalists and then pay off their creditors - it would be a lean, mean agent of transparency and would deal out pain where pain is due. James Smalhout reports.

Brazilian deal makers are great innovators. If they weren't, nothing would get done. This is virgin terrain for many transactions, the rules have to be made up before business can go ahead. Bureaucrats have to be persuaded of the advantages, partners convinced it can work. A handful of far-sighted bankers have overcome these odds to do deals of all types. Brian Caplen reports.

Making up the rules in Brazil

Country risk: How the mighty are falling

For a system that supposedly conquered the world in 1990, free-market capitalism doesn't look so good any more. After Mexico, Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, Russia, which of capitalism's self-appointed disciples will stumble next? And who is to blame? The track record has embarrassed all but hard-liners into thinking there might be a Third Way - between free capital flows with floating exchange rates and the dirigiste controls of the 1960s. Chile, China, James Tobin - they've all been held to ridicule for their batty market ideas. But today it's not just bleeding-hearts and socialists who are looking at their attempts more closely. Michelle Celarier reports.

World stock and futures exchanges are in a turmoil of change and uncertainty. Fusion and cross-border linkages are in the air. Regulation to take account of this rapid change lags far behind, and stateless, borderless trading facilities may soon make it impossible. Remember, the only reason for an exchange to exist is to reduce transaction costs, argues Ruben Lee. Any new step that doesn't will end in tears.

How do you wean crisis countries away from official bail-outs onto private funding? There has to be a way to reward borrowers for improved behaviour yet punish lenders for piling in indiscriminately. New lending models include contingent repos, sovereign default options and credit spread bonds. But will they catch on? James Smalhout reports.

From time to time Romania's political leadership launches a plan for reform. Foreign bankers and investors respond with a wave of enthusiasm about the country. Then things go awry. This year, following the latest reform plan, foreign banks are starting to expand outside the capital and are looking for privatization mandates. Will things be different this time? James Rutter finds out.

Pedro Luis Uriarte's timing on emerging markets seemed brilliant. The CEO of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya, Spain's second largest bank by assets, scaled back in Asia and Russia ahead of the crises. But will his luck hold in Latin America? In the last three years BBV has invested $3 billion buying stakes in banks and financial institutions in 12 Latin countries with major deals in Brazil and Chile sown up recently. Uriarte, whose mantra is shareholder value, aims to compensate for lower margins in Europe by reaping higher returns in Latin America. If he succeeds, BBV may rank among the world's top 10 banks by market capitalization. But the risks are high. Since the emerging markets storm blew up, BBV's share price has fallen 25% and rating agencies have put it under review for a downgrade. In an interview with Brian Caplen, Uriarte is adamant that the bank's Latin earnings will be unaffected. He speaks about the bank's acquisition strategy in Europe, his management style, his relationship with his chairman, Emilio Ybarra, and his wish to retire before the mandatory age of 62 Uriarte is 55 and became CEO in 1994. He has worked at the bank since 1974 taking a four-year break in the early 1980s to be minister of economy and finance for the Basque regional government.

Colombia has had mixed fortunes in the debt market in recent years. Successful international issues and an investment grade rating have been superceded by social problems and a drop in emerging market confidence. The local bond market is now suffering as well. Isabel Vallejo reports

The free market doesn't work. The emerging markets are crying foul. Global capital has been rampaging through their economies with dire effects. The most extreme case is Malaysia, prompting Mahathir Mohamad, that country's populist demagogue, to declare that "the free market has failed disastrously".