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  • Euromoney Country Risk
    Colombia had a bumpy path in the previous decade, reflecting the costs and uncertainties of its civil conflict with leftist rebels. Yet the sovereign’s score has lately improved to 58 points and to within a hair’s breadth of Brazil, ranking 42nd on ECR’s global scoreboard. The re-election of president Juan Manuel Santos provides a mandate to deliver peace with the Farc rebels. The sovereign’s brighter outlook rests too on a rising score for its economic outlook, which is higher than Brazil’s, as are its survey scores for monetary policy/currency stability and bank stability. A strong policymaking environment is responsible, with monetary policy enhanced by inflation-targeting and a flexible exchange rate; financial stability benefiting from improved supervision and regulation; and fiscal credibility underpinned by structural sustainability with a fiscal balance rule and tax reform containing the deficit. Admittedly Colombia is as vulnerable to negative shocks as any country and plagued by a depressingly low score for corruption.
  • There’s no doubt mobile money is Africa’s future, but who is best equipped to benefit most: the telcos with their networks, or the banks with their products and service? And why are they fighting when they could be cooperating?
  • The full-scale disruptive potential of social trading is beginning to become clear, according to proponents. But there are fears that it is encouraging inexperienced traders to load up with risk in the pursuit of large returns and there have been calls for tougher regulation.
  • The US has reached a milestone by announcing the end of its eight-year quantitative easing stimulus programme as its economy recovers, but the news highlights the increasing policy divergence between the US and Europe. Corporates have as a result started factoring in increasing euro weakness ahead of 2015.
  • The US dollar has become highly correlated with equities in recent months, conjuring up memories of the late 1990s and the dotcom boom, the last time the two asset classes rose together for such an extended period. But the differences between the two periods are as illustrative as their similarities.
  • Investor demand tops $11 billion; Oil price, rouble falls raise devaluation fears.
  • The short- and medium-term outlooks for Argentina are increasingly diverging, says the Institute of International Finance.
  • Aldermore pulls, Virgin Money delays; Equity fund outflows dim ECM prospects
  • Wealth tax proposed; Finance minister sensitive to FDI fears
  • Participants in the European high-yield market say the collapse of Phones 4U, which left PIK-note holders wiped out, was a one-off event. But it serves as a stark reminder of the liquidity trap that lies in wait for yield-hungry investors chasing each other further and further down the credit curve. And it calls into question whether European investors have developed the necessary credit skills to invest in such risky assets.
  • Corporate bond-buying rumour underscores need for further ECB action.
  • Corporate bond-buying rumour underscores need for further ECB action.