S&P’s regional bank index has just pushed past its March 10, 2023, level, reflecting where these stocks were immediately before the collapse of SVB last year. Those stocks are rising sharply and investors are seeing huge profits, so is this a sign that regional banks have finally emerged from their crisis?

Exactly one year ago, San Francisco-based First Republic Bank was sold by regulators amid a US regional banking crisis. Citizens Financial Group, which had seen the sale as a chance to turbocharge its private banking ambitions, lost out to JPMorgan. But far from being the end of the story, that failed bid was just the beginning. Within weeks the bank had announced First Republic’s Susan deTray as the head of its new private bank, a unit that is now at the heart of a fast-growing wealth franchise.

As other investment banks cut staff, HSBC has been hiring to build a leading bank in tech and healthcare.

As the drumbeat of bad news from the US regional banks grows steadily louder, Euromoney talks to market veterans about the lessons that can be learned from the event that started it all: Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse in March.

The US regional banking system has just sustained its third bank collapse this year. Following an initial sharp slump in reaction to the news, bank stocks have continued to fall as short sellers target perceived weakness. Can the sector stabilize as the impact of rate rises on many of these lenders’ business models becomes apparent?

US banks have seen $1.1 trillion in deposits flee the system over the past year. Much of this wound up in money-market funds that offer higher returns and the promise of safety and stability at a time of rising uncertainty. How dangerous is this for US lenders, and what can they do to convince flighty deposits to return to the banking system?

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has fuelled an abrupt end to venture-capital exuberance. There are vital implications for fintech and for the banking industry.

JPMorgan has cleaned up in a deal that sees the regulators waive their own cap on 10% deposit ownership.

The recent spate of deposit flight that spread panic through the banking systems of the US and Europe opens a chance for non-bank lenders to seize more of the core businesses that banks want to retain. Central bank emergency measures may have prevented the crisis from spreading, but a new phase of disintermediation has begun.

The failure of venture capital’s favourite bank is bad news for a sector reliant on new injections of cheap capital to sustain loss-making growth.

As well as higher capital requirements for regional US banks, the policy response to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse will likely include increasing the Deposit Insurance Fund, which bigger banks will have to pay for.

Recent events call into question most of the core assumptions behind the rules designed to keep banks safe through a liquidity squeeze.

Bankers have been at pains to stress how different the world is today from the dark days of 2008: higher capital; more liquidity; lower credit risk and all that. But while individual banks may be safer than they were, collectively they arguably now face a worse existential crisis. Societies face awkward questions about how they value the utility of the banking sector – and how they should pay for it.

Short-term government bonds have re-emerged as a viable option for corporate treasurers seeking returns on their cash, but recent events in the US banking sector highlight the risks of long-dated exposures.

Solar thermal technology could offer cheap carbon-free heat for manufacturers. But tech developers are stuck in a financing gap between venture capital and project finance that will be harder to fill after recent bank failures.

Interest rate risk management has been complicated by the fall in yields after the US bailout of SVB’s depositors. Clients may feel that hedging chiefly benefits Wall Street dealers rather than themselves.

It is not clear how the SVB collapse will change banking; but it is clear that the lack of supervision of smaller banks allowed systemic risk to spread worryingly fast.

HSBC runs towards the storm as others are fleeing it.

The collapsing share price of Silicon Valley Bank, triggered by the realization of a loss on a portfolio sale, puts pressure on other US banks that have built up similar books of investments.