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LATEST ARTICLES
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A more optimistic picture of the eurozone economy is clouded by deflationary pressures, which are especially perilous in Greece. There is no easy fix, but a cheaper euro would help.
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London and Luxembourg are at loggerheads to become Europe’s leading offshore renminbi hub – although they wouldn’t let you know it.
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The Fed added insult to emerging-market injury when it failed to acknowledge the EM rout this week, confirming the resolutely domestic focus of its monetary stance despite the international spill-over effects. The move reignites the debate about global monetary co-ordination.
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Surveys suggest that virtual currencies look a safer bet than local stocks and property.
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Top banks face greater risks in 2014 from shaky economic outlooks, indiscriminate reputational damage from market scandals, strict collateral rules, increased competition from ECNs and historically low market volatility.
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Not all emerging markets are in free fall, investors are discriminating between surplus and deficit countries, it’s not all China’s fault, and domestic EM policies matter.
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Forget the doom over currency wars – the dollar-led monetary system boosts global stability, while China’s fixed exchange-rate regime poses risks, argues the IIF’s Charles Collyns, a former US Treasury official, as debate rages over the role of the dollar in the emerging world, in particular.
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A massive currency sell-off this week echoes the dark days of emerging-market crises, say bears. Analysts are resolutely underweight emerging market bonds and stocks, citing the legacy of the recent credit boom and the absence of structural reforms.
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Concrete advances towards the full tradability of the Chinese currency are at last seemingly being made, helping to rebalance the country’s growth model but heaping on short-term risks to China’s economic and financial stability.
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In a trading world in which a broader policy mandate for central banks is firmly in operation, and where risk appetite is in decline, the failure of another single-strategy fund from QFS Asset Management highlights why multi-strategy funds appear to be the way forward.
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Increasing divergences in interest rates around the globe are set to herald the return of the carry trade as a foundation stone of the dealing environment, superseding the RORO- and monetary policy-influenced FX trading of the past few years.
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Foreign-exchange market tremors are likely to reverberate for years to come as the global probe deepens, triggering fears of regulatory overkill.
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As competition between financial hubs heats up, London’s ambition to become the western destination of choice for offshore renminbi received a boost from crucial market players this week, following a flurry of successful renminbi-related developments in the City.
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The recent loosening of rules regarding leverage ratios and collateral by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision might boost banks’ available trading resources, but FX is not out of the regulatory woods.
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Regulators have woken up to the currency’s potentially huge impact on the global payments system, given the decentralized, virtual and anonymous nature of the peer-to-peer network.
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With global economic growth still stuttering, currency depreciation has become a zero-sum game for central banks, and recent developments in some key currencies have shown that fears of an inflation undershoot or outright deflation will remain an important driver for their currency policies.
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From the carry candidates, the diminished safe havens, and the new negative balance-of-payments club, FX trading strategies are navigating a differentiated and complex global landscape.
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The bear case for EM FX markets has gathered momentum, with more and more analysts questioning the medium-term to long-term investment case.
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Currency analysts have little love for the Canadian dollar as the country has limited room for consumption-led growth and a tighter fiscal position.
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Fiscal slippage, less FDI and lower export prices make Ghana among most vulnerable; Eurobond access still cheap
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2014 looks set to be the year of the dollar, judging by the consensus among the world’s leading currency watchers.
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Australia has stepped up its assault on a perceived overvaluation of its currency, but might well have inadvertently set up a soft floor in its currency.
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A new form of hot-potato trading has emerged in the FX market in which dealers no longer dominate price action, warns the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
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Electronic trading is set to account for an increasing share of the volume on the world’s $5.3 trillion-a-day FX market, but that does not mean the death of voice brokers.
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With extended opportunities for UK investors in China through programmes such as the RQFII scheme, China Construction Bank opened its doors this week to London-based investors, signalling the strength of the Sino-UK relationship.
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The renminbi has overtaken the euro to become the second most-used currency in trade finance, according to Swift, the financial messaging service.
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Sterling hit its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis against the yen and a two-year high against the dollar, as the Bank of England (BoE) took a first step to normalize monetary policy in the face of a strong housing market – but it might power higher thanks to a seasonal boost.
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For all the focus on the Federal Reserve’s plans to start tapering its asset purchases, currency investors should also be looking at developments in China.
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Asset managers are traditionally the biggest users of the foreign exchange daily fix. As Euromoney Market Data shows, the top banks in this area are not quite the same as the leading trading houses for overall market share.
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The dollar/yen trade is showing signs of breaking higher, but can the Japanese currency maintain its weakening momentum?