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LATEST ARTICLES
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The euro has remained resilient amid the turmoil that has engulfed the financial markets in recent weeks, but its fortunes might be starting to turn.
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The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting has put a stop to the dollar’s divergent performance, which had seen it lose ground against leading currencies and advance against most emerging market (EM) currencies in recent weeks.
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The Australian dollar has been something of a whipping boy in recent weeks, but a change to reserve holding data published by the IMF has the potential to calm fears over a mass exodus from the country’s bond market and put the brakes on the currency’s slide.
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News that UK regulators are investigating alleged manipulation in FX benchmarks has hit the headlines, but can it be compared to the Libor scandal?
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For FX investors witnessing the volatility in high-yielding currencies, it might seem a strange time to warn about the potential bursting of a carry trade bubble, but one has managed to slip under the radar.
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London’s role in the global RMB market grew substantially last year, with business volumes and the number of renminbi products provided by London-based banks on the up, according to a new report.
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Violent price action during the last 24 hours might suggest the yen-weakening trend has run its course, but once the dust settles it might just have left investors with a better entry-level to sell the Japanese currency.
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The Brazilian real looks set to escape the sell-off sweeping across emerging market (EM) currencies after the country’s government scrapped the tax on overseas investments in domestic bonds.
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The stress witnessed in local bond markets during the past few weeks has driven emerging market currencies sharply lower, but the sell-off might only just be starting.
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For some, the growing divergence between the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and that of the European Central Bank (ECB) is a reason to be bullish on EURUSD, but that relationship might be in the process of breaking down.
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The prospect of the Federal Reserve tapering its quantitative easing (QE) programme has been the main pre-occupation of currency investors during the past month, but there are wider forces at play that suggest a regime shift in the FX market.
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A sell-off in emerging market local currency debt is on the cards amid global deflation, a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, say bearish analysts. If these predictions ring true it won’t be pretty for FX unhedged real money investors.
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The breakdown in the correlation between equity and commodity prices suggests the dollar could find support.
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The yen’s surge from a near five-year low against the dollar is not likely to cause much angst among Japanese corporates, which appear comfortable with the currency around present levels.
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The final clarification of the long-awaited rules on swap execution facilities (SEFs) could prompt more trading venues to enter the FX options market.
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The Australian dollar, once the darling of currency investors, has fallen firmly out of favour, with the pace of the move taking many by surprise.
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The dollar’s march higher during the past few weeks has been triggered by expectations of stronger US growth, but the question remains whether it signifies the start of a broad-based dollar revival and the end of the multi-year downtrend in the currency.
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Revenues at EBS, Icap’s electronic FX broking platform, have fallen as central bank action stemmed volatility in currency markets.
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USDJPY broke through the ¥100 level for the first time since 2009 on Thursday, a move that sparked a wave of dollar buying.
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Sterling continues to defy bearish expectations, powering to a three-month high against the dollar after UK manufacturing data beat expectations.
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Measures introduced by China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) this week to stem speculative inflows of capital into the country could be a first step towards further liberalization of Beijing’s currency policy.
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FX banks fear duopoly pricing power of EBS and Reuters; ParFX shows focus on low-cost trading.
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As the leading FX banks increase their grip on end-user volumes, their customers should take note of the banks’ own aversion to high market share among key providers.
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Fragmentation and phantom liquidity bedevil the foreign exchange market with its proliferation of trading venues. Investors and corporates want to see the true depth of the market and what amounts they can really trade at the enticing prices being flashed at them. In a low-return world, these end-users are getting rigorous on trading cost analysis. Banks are developing new technology to respond.
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For all the fragmentation in the FX market, the top four banks further consolidated their dominance of customer business, according to the 2013 Euromoney foreign exchange survey. As volumes rise again in FX, volatility returns and banks’ earnings from it recover, margins are still compressing. Customers are focused on cutting transaction costs. Banks face big demands on scarce IT resources.
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The history of the Euromoney FX survey shows that periods of apparent stasis often give way to sudden and marked shifts.
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The Euromoney Foreign Exchange survey is the most comprehensive quantitative and qualitative annual study available on the FX markets.