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LATEST ARTICLES
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European authorities hope their repeated assurances that Cyprus is a special case will curb contagion and ensure the fiasco there does not set a precedent for future bank crises.
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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has delivered on government promises to attempt to reflate the Japanese economy, but while the yen is likely to remain on the defensive, doubts persist over the potential effectiveness of the move in tackling Japan’s deflationary spiral.
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The world’s reserve managers cut the share of the euro in their FX stockpiles in the fourth quarter to the lowest level since the eurozone debt crisis erupted, according to figures from the IMF – news that could alter the dynamics of the FX market.
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The euro has displayed remarkable resilience for a currency that has in effect been broken up by the deal hammered out by the troika of the EU, ECB and IMF to rescue Cyprus, but the single currency might face headwinds as a result of the action as investors question the consistency of policy.
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Little more than a week after Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England (BoE), performed an about turn on the benefits of sterling weakness, more members of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have issued a warning over weakness in the currency.
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Once seasonal rouble demand for tax payments has passed later this month, the currency should suffer, given Russia’s close links to Cyprus.
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Mervyn King, the outgoing governor of the Bank of England, put a temporary halt to the slide in the pound on Thursday, but the currency still faces challenges in the weeks ahead.
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The strength in the dollar after Wednesday’s robust US retail sales data highlights the shift in the foreign exchange market that has seen the US currency shed its mantle as the funding currency of choice in the first few months of this year.
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The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is unlikely to raise the floor it imposed in the euro against the Swiss franc at its policy meeting, but could introduce other measures to cap strength in its currency.
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The pound has dropped to its lowest level in two and a half years against the dollar amid a widespread perception that the currency has lost its inflation anchor.
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Increased activity and rising volatility have provided further evidence that trading conditions in the foreign exchange market are returning to the norms seen before the financial crisis.
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The muted reaction in the FX market to the rise in equity prices underlines the shift away from the risk-on/risk-off (RORO) trade and the breakdown in currency correlation seen in recent weeks.
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Last month, ill-informed speculation grew to a crescendo that Antony Jenkins, the newish chief executive of Barclays, who spent his career on the retail side of the bank, would take the axe to the investment banking division. After all, UBS’s shares had been re-rated after the bank announced a wide-scale deleveraging of the investment bank, particularly those parts of the FICC division that had large amounts of capital tied up by counterparty risk exposure in long-dated derivatives.
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Sterling looks set for a renewed sell-off as the Bank of England (BoE) attempts to head off a triple-dip recession in the UK.
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The death of the Australian mining boom has been exaggerated and should help the country’s currency recover after its recent sell-off.
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The multi-year investment bet: meet the emerging markets whose exchange rates need to strengthen or weaken, or where domestic demand needs to cool down amid overheating risks.
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The potential for the Federal Reserve to exit its ultra-loose policy stance has led some to believe that 2013 is the year the dollar will stage a rally and break free from the bear market that has pressured the currency for more than 10 years – but those calls are likely to be premature.
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The results of the Italian election have triggered the first signs of a regime shift in the foreign exchange market away from speculating on currency wars back towards concerns over a collapse of the financial system.
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The currency war that many feared as an inevitable accompaniment to the credit crisis played out as more of a paint-ball contest until the recent sharp slide of the yen. The violence of the yen fall of roughly 20% reawakened fears of a wave of competitive devaluations.
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Non-resident demand for UK gilts is likely to be dampened by elevated credit and FX risk at a time of relatively high supply, Nomura analysts conclude.
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The sharp sell-off in the yen has so far been driven by momentum and technical factors, but the success of Japan’s efforts to reflate its economy could have a more permanent effect on the yen.
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The speculative trading community may have been prepared for the latest sharp drop in the pound, but price action in the options market suggests that corporates are unready for heavy sterling losses.
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Currency war has been dominating the headlines, but there is little reason to suppose that EM policymakers are set to join the fray.
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Following the plunge in the yen over the last few months, the pound looks set to be the next currency that devalues across the board as the Bank of England sets aside inflation targeting.
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Foreign exchange revenues at leading investment banks were down sharply in 2012 amid declining volatility and reduced volumes, according to consultancy firm Coalition.
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Much has been made of the recent outbreak of currency war rhetoric, but analysis suggests global exchange rates are not misaligned by historical standards.
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Why you are wrong, courtesy of Capital Economics.
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The world’s leading industrialized nations have sought to ease tensions in the FX market ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers in Moscow, but appear to have given the go-ahead for further strains to develop.
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Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), has pulled off quite a trick: engaging in the global currency war without firing a shot in anger.
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The announcement from Masaaki Shirakawa, Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor, that he will step down earlier than previously assumed has led to a renewed wave of yen weakness, but his successor will need to implement radical action for the slide in the currency to continue.