Against the tide
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LATEST ARTICLES
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Two elections in Europe in a month will certainly ruffle the feathers of financial markets.
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The populist surge is being restrained for now, but several factors are likely to drive up sovereign bond yields in Europe.
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The dollar’s multi-year bull run might last a couple more months, but its fundamental underpinnings are weakening.
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With the sizeable majority voting no to political reform in the Italian referendum, the anger vote has claimed its next victim – Italy. The dominoes of Brexit, Trump and now Italy continue to fall.
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The rise of populism in general, and Trumpism in particular, brings severe geopolitical and economic risks and could have a disastrous impact on growth and productivity.
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Another European banking crunch is on the horizon thanks to legacy problems that have not been fixed.
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The European Project faces a much greater danger from the rise of populism than from the sovereign debt crisis.
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The advantages of helicopter money are dubious and they come with large risks attached.
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The failed coup in Turkey shows that we are in one of those periods in history when politics matter as much or more than economics for financial markets.
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US growth should start a strong rebound this year, increasing the chances of rate rises.
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Central bank initiatives are carrying less and less influence and their diminishing returns increasingly point to a toxic race to the bottom.
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When the numbers look bleak and central banks are out of tools, cash and gold make sense.
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Weaknesses in Japan and Asia will mean a flight to quality.
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It is going to be a bumpy ride for Asia and other commodity-producing economies this year.
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The euro is on course for parity with the dollar in 2016.
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Britain’s renegotiation of its relationship with the EU could be a good thing for Europe too.
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The country is an indicator of the European Union’s future.
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The US Federal Reserve has harmed its credibility by postponing a rate hike.
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Renzi’s reforms and favourable winds seem to be working some magic on the country’s numbers.
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Structural problems and over-leverage mean the focus will switch to Asia for the next global currency moves.
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Investors ignore valuation at their peril – a period of lacklustre returns looms. The Fed’s move on interest rates is key.
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The newly elected Tory party must wrestle with an invigorated SNP and its old bête noire, the EU. The proposed in/out referendum will cast a long shadow over the UK.
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The eurozone recovery looks increasingly secure but the low growth rate is still a big cause for concern.
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At times the ECB seems to lurk so far behind the curve that it appears to be using some sort of random monetary-policy generator.
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Political pressures and lack of growth have put the European project under threat. Reform is urgently needed to set Europe back on course.
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The eurozone’s economic fortunes should start to recover with the arrival, at last, of full-blown quantitative easing. As the world’s leading currencies are set for a race to the bottom, it could be time to buy gold.
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Time is running out for Italy to make the reforms it needs to produce a self-sustaining recovery.
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The US looks to benefit from a changing energy landscape, at the expense of Russia and the Middle East, while Europe will be happier to be less reliant on those producers.
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The financial sector remains central to the eurozone’s economic woes. Promises of ECB support only prolong the problem.