Country risk: There’s an A in Iceland

September 21, 2015

Two of the earliest victims of the sovereign debt crisis that hit Europe in 2009 are ahead of the pack again – but this time they are leading the way by re-establishing themselves as economic success stories. Euromoney Country Risk’s survey charts the risers and fallers.

by Tessa Wilkie and Chilli Wutte

Iceland and Ireland could be set for further boosts from the rating agencies, according to the latest Euromoney Country Risk survey.

Iceland’s score indicates it is fast closing on tier-two status – which implies a credit rating of A- to AA. Jeremy Weltman, economist at MJEconomics and ECR, predicts that an upgrade for the Baa3/BBB/BBB- rated sovereign is imminent.

“Euromoney’s survey data suggest Iceland should soon be A-rated,” says Weltman. “It is only two places and less than four points below tier two and moreover sandwiched between two A-grades, Malaysia and China.”

ECR experts provide real-time country scores across a range of political, economic and structural criteria. Expert scores are combined with access to capital scores, credit ratings and debt indicators, and aggregated to provide a total risk score. More than 400 economists and experts from a range of financial and other institutions participate in the survey.