The Baltic states’ improving growth prospects are under pressure due to the eurozone’s frailties and their close trade and investment links to Sweden and Russia.

The sovereign’s declining score trend partially reversed at the end of the third quarter of 2013, but the country remains one of the riskiest in the MENA region, both in terms of its political and economic rating.

This quarter it is Latin America and the Caribbean that have taken the biggest hit to their average ECR scores, seemingly in response to the anticipated impact of Fed monetary policy tapering – deferred perhaps, but still on the cards for January – amid weakened commodity prices due to China coming down from its breakneck expansion and the threatened slowdown in US growth spreading south. This has taken place in a quarter in which the LatAm risk dispersion, dividing high-flying Chile from low-ranking Nicaragua, has reached a record 48.6 points.

Middle East scores continue to flounder – doubly so with North Africa included – in light of attenuated risk profiles for low-scoring Syria and Yemen, both riven by instabilities, and with confidence in Bahrain slipping, to highlight the effects of political and social instabilities.

The US factor might be more fear than substance. Within the G10 group of leading industrialized nations, the US is not considered a particularly riskier prospect in spite of its latest political troubles. The world’s biggest economy has slipped to 17th in the rankings, but its score is still higher than at the start of the year.

Experts’ scores also depict a mixed picture for Sub-Saharan African borrowers during Q3, with Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Tanzania among those countries whose scores have fallen as economic worries connected to global economic prospects dominate parts of the region.

Other European scores have fallen as the political and economic problems across the region mutate. During the year to date, most parts of Europe – including the eurozone, the high-risk former Soviet Republics (the CIS), led by Moldova, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, and other central and eastern parts of the region, several with governance issues – have witnessed the largest average score declines of any regions of the world.

Across the rest of Asia, Indonesia – one of the worst affected by the currency sell-off along with India – Thailand, Vietnam and one or two other sovereigns are languishing, highlighting the region’s financial imbalances, including its growth and banking-sector vulnerabilities.

More than five years on from the credit crunch that shook the world to its core, tail risks continue to undermine investor returns, according to the latest quarterly results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

More than 400 economists and other experts from a range of financial and other institutions take part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey. They evaluate the risks faced by international investors in more than 180 markets, scoring countries across a range of political, economic and structural criteria. These are added to values for capital access, credit ratings and debt indicators, and aggregated each quarter to provide a total risk score.

The sovereign’s country risk score is still up on a year ago and its ranking unchanged in the ECR survey.

High-risk sovereign rides trend improvement on the back of stabilizing political and security situation, boosting economic prospects.

Notwithstanding the recent rise in its government bond yields, Italy still ranks higher than Spain in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey, despite the country’s uncertain political outlook.

Kenya’s risks have eased since Q2 in response to the calm electoral process in March. However, the rise in Kenya’s ECR score cannot hide the fact the sovereign and its fellow emerging SSA issuers are considered to have high-risk profiles, according to ECR experts – a discrepancy that could soon be factored into the region’s borrowing costs.

Argentina’s fall from grace and Mexico’s dazzling appeal have delivered a record score differential – an outcome that was predictable from score trends that emerged years ago and which is justified on every indicator of risk, according to Euromoney’s Country Risk survey.

ECR experts, led by Irish and Portuguese restructuring, have begun to upgrade bank stability assessments after sharp falls in the indicator scores since the credit crunch five to six years ago. However, the picture is blurred by scores still falling for many at-risk countries amid deep concerns about Cyprus, Malta and Slovenia.

Embattled country leads risk rise in Asia after US monetary shift.

The Netherlands was the worst triple-A eurozone performer in ECR survey for the second quarter.

Botswana has emerged as Africa’s safest economy as a result of South Africa’s deteriorating economic fundamentals and rising political risk, according to the latest results of Euromoney’s Country Risk survey.

Growing public debt and a low reserves buffer leave the sovereign exposed, according to the latest results of Euromoney’s Country Risk survey.

Iceland and Ireland are on the road to recovery, while Portugal, Italy and Spain plunge further into economic malaise, according to analysts participating in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

The economic situation in Iran is likely to deteriorate further as the west steps up its sanctions against the regime, say analysts at the Institute of International Finance.

Rising real wages and consumption have boosted German growth without a corresponding increase in productivity, generating headwinds for economic growth and corporate profitability for years to come, argue analysts at Natixis, the French investment bank.

Country risk continued to increase across the Middle East and North African region during the first half of this year, according to experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey, although the changes in risk scores varied as some countries became safer.

Israel’s score has shown tremendous volatility so far this year, and has slipped four places in the rankings to 33rd, yet overall several of its key indicators have risen.

ECR experts remain divided over the perceived risks to banking systems in the MENA region, and with only five of MENA’s 18 countries scoring more than 6.0 out of 10 for this particular risk indicator, it is clear it is not just Europe that has substantial solvency and liquidity issues.

Although the Gulf remains the safest bloc within the MENA region, its six constituent countries still display diverse prospects in terms of the three main categories of risk in Euromoney’s survey (see chart).

The wealthier Gulf-based oil and gas producers – underpinned by their strong fiscal and current-account balances – have, in the main, either resisted the plummeting scores seen for Egypt, Tunisia, Libya et al, or still rank comparatively highly for their sovereign safety.

The decision by Fitch to strip France of its AAA rating confirms its fall from sovereign grace but the belated move is unlikely to trigger a rise in borrowing costs.

Declining bank-stability scores across Asia in the second quarter of 2013 highlight rising global macroeconomic risks, as the world’s regional growth engine confronts leverage and financial-imbalance risks, say analysts.