There is seemingly no easing of risk for the two countries, despite the anticipated third-quarter economic improvement.

Investors beware – countries in the region have been downgraded in Euromoney’s country risk survey this year.

Euromoney asked its panellists to rescore Lebanon’s risks in the aftermath of the port tragedy on August 4, with investors left pondering what’s next for a country now desperately in need of aid and finance for reconstruction.

Analysts can see through the economic and fiscal shock to observe a country with its underlying strengths intact.

The country is showing one of the more concerning trends among Asia’s emerging markets as politics and economics combine to increase investor risks.

El Salvador dives, while Panama copes as trade buckles, remittances drop and fiscal pressures intensify.

Euromoney’s survey shows the pandemic crisis is having both predictable and unexpected effects on economic, political and structural indicators as the world faces the biggest investor shock in living memory.

Protectionism is undermining an otherwise moderate global outlook as growth continues, labour markets tighten and geopolitical crises calm.

Investor safety has come under close scrutiny since June, resulting in a small but discernible decline in the global average risk score, halting a four-quarter improving trend.

Global risk subsided in the first half of the year, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey, with confidence in Europe maintained and commodity producers benefiting from better terms of trade. Yet with US interest rates rising, and Brexit, Russia and protectionism risks prevailing, investor prospects have more recently become uncertain for the remainder of 2018.

The risks of investing in developed countries eased in Q3 2017 due to strong economic growth, according to economists and other experts. Several large emerging markets (EMs) also became safer as volatility eased worldwide.

Euromoney’s latest Country Risk Survey shows a gradual rebalancing of risk scores this year, as the aftershocks of the global banking and sovereign debt crises wear off, political risks tied to the European electoral cycle fade, and capital access improves for EMs.

It won the Euros, it won Eurovision – now it is time to win back its lost investment grades.

Confidence in the oil producer is wavering as a bank crisis unfolds.

Euromoney’s country risk survey shows political risk rising in 64 countries this year. The march of populism is a key factor investors must consider before chasing tempting returns, but there are many others to guard against.

A stronger yen-won exchange rate underlines Japan’s perception of safety with Seoul now plunged into a crisis, awaiting elections and wary of tensions escalating on the Korean peninsula.

Theresa May’s decision to call a snap general election to increase her Conservative government’s majority has generated a positive reaction in the markets, but does not guarantee a more favourable investor climate.

The borrower’s gradually improving risk profile could see it overtake Brazil and Turkey before too long.

Egypt’s fall from grace is one of the more noteworthy of recent years.

Euromoney’s survey experts continue to downgrade the borrower, disagreeing with the president’s claims there is no justification for it.

Greece must find a way to secure more aid from its creditors, but is caught in the crossfire between the IMF defending its pleas for debt relief and European policymakers insisting on repayment. The outcome is likely to be messy given the preponderance of elections in Europe this year, and a sense of déjà vu by kicking the can further down the road.

In Q4 2016, Greece’s ECR score took another turn for the worse and declined by 0.27 points, dropping to 113th in the country risk rankings. This was a result of lower regulatory environment and overall demographic assessments, but most notably declining debt indicator scores. ECR asks two experts what the wider implications are for the eurozone.

Geert Wilders’ Eurosceptic-populist Freedom Party might win the forthcoming parliamentary elections. Yet the prospect of him forming a government is low, preventing political risk from overshadowing economic and fiscal strengths.

The country has disappointed investors by revealing undisclosed liabilities, which is underlining how African borrowers must be treated with caution.

Leaping into tier three, the country is on course to regain the rating it lost four years ago.

The rating agencies still won’t budge as the two countries’ risk scores diverge.

The borrower is on its knees, crippled by a huge debt burden and in need of an external lifeline. Only an IMF deal can improve its fortunes.

Euromoney Country Risk shows global risk rising, as leading economists and political experts revise their views on asset safety.

Its risk score is still improving, but it should not be ignored the borrower is still an acute-risk, tier-five option, a year on from the elections.

The borrower is on shakier ground as its ability to refinance debt is questioned.

Georgia’s overall ECR score has been rising steadily throughout 2016. It improved by more than one point in the third quarter of the year, scoring 44.97, up from 43.88 in the previous quarter.

The fall in the currency could have repercussions for investor safety, extending the downward trend in its country risk score.

After a change of administration and the continuity of a four-year IMF package, which includes much-needed reforms and austerity measures, the country seems to be on the right track.

Political turmoil is heightening investor risk and will likely narrow the risk score differential with Japan, but a strong macro-fiscal situation should not be overlooked.

Mexico has climbed two positions in Euromoney’s latest quarter results, ranking 37th out of 186 monitored countries, but the new US presidency has analysts worried.

Investor risk has been rising this year with fears over Brexit, China, the oil price slump, eurozone debts and global conflict weighing heavily on portfolio decision-making. The shock impact of the Republican victory has made the picture even murkier and sent assets into a tailspin.

The October elections did not deliver the shock investors were bracing themselves for when anti-government protests took place earlier in the year – easing the risks and endorsing Iceland’s credentials for a credit rating upgrade based on its improving macro-fiscal profile.

The political chaos, which left the country without a government for 10 months after two election rounds, seems to be finally contained as a new minority government is in the making.

Although the CIS is learning to adjust to low oil prices, the recovery is slow, the political risks complex, and with fiscal deficits widening living standards are failing to keep pace with other emerging markets.

The country is gradually improving its position in the ECR rankings – unlike several of its neighbours.

The calming of the political shock of Brexit, with oil prices now receiving Opec support, is preventing global risks from worsening, yet with a referendum looming in Italy, elections in the US and Europe to come, not to mention frail banks and several countries mired in difficulties, it might be the calm before another global storm.

The sovereign borrower still struggles to convince the experts as the elections draw near.

The decision to reassign Hungary’s investment grade will bring delight to Budapest, bringing the sovereign borrower correctly in line with Romania, but S&P needs to take note – Euromoney’s country risk survey is shining the spotlight on another country that is closely aligned.

Continuing engagement with the IMF is a positive sign, but it’s a long way back as the economic, political and security risks are still sky-high.

Poland’s declining risk score trend in Euromoney’s survey signals the rating agency is lagging experts in the field.

The borrower will not challenge Indian safety for the foreseeable future, but faith in the emerging market (EM) is justified by its improving risk score.

The southern African country’s reliance on copper and recent disorderly elections have seen increased instability in the region, potentially adding to the deterioration in its ECR scores.

There is no need to panic, but the government’s new budget strategy puts the fiscal consolidation plans out of kilter and is signalling there might be trouble ahead.

While the focus has been on how Italy must resolve its banking sector problems, investors should also be keeping an eye on the risks lurking elsewhere in Europe.

Uncertainty is increasing for peso assets as the fight for the White House heats up. Even a victory for Hillary Clinton comes with reservations attached, demonstrating how it is not just the possibility of Donald Trump winning that is ringing alarm bells.

Country-by-country assessments of Europe’s banking sector show that risks are at new highs, as the financial services industry struggles to cope with the aftershocks of the 2007/08 crisis. Resolving the Italian bank crisis is key to how it will all pan out.

The swift formation of a new government and the opportunities created by the pound’s fall have quietened the doomsayers. But risk experts have downgraded their views on the economic outlook and government stability after the referendum, with so much that is still unknown.

The signing of a ceasefire agreement ending five decades of civil war is nothing short of monumental, but laying down the weapons will not fully resolve the issues and will most likely lead to fiscal repercussions with the economy already under pressure.

Three years on from securing a bailout, the island nation is still addressing the fallout. Yet the economy is growing, political continuity is assured and credit rating agencies are playing catch-up.

The UK’s economic and structural ECR scores are holding up well despite the possibility that its people will vote to leave the European Union (EU) next week. The strength of the sovereign’s outlook means that if the UK did vote to leave, it could quickly recover from the ensuing drop in its risk score, claim several experts this week.

The borrower’s prospects are still failing to improve, despite decent GDP growth, as political and structural concerns preoccupy the risk experts.

Four months after a new coalition was formed, the economy is brightening, but Croatia remains mired in a political crisis weighing on its country risk rating.

The borrower is on a trend decline amid uncertainty about the outcome of early elections in July. It means New Zealand is looking the safer bet, despite its slightly lower ECR score and inferior credit rating.

Euromoney’s country risk survey shows the safety of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) issuers is once again in question, as economies flounder, debts spiral and capital access tightens.

It seems an appropriate time for the Asian borrower to regain its full complement of investment-grade ratings as it becomes safer in Euromoney’s country risk survey.

The borrower is beginning to shine with the presidential race guaranteeing a pro-market candidate winning and the economy improving due to increased copper-mining capacity.

Euromoney’s risk survey successfully predicted the move to investment grade for the Philippines in 2013, and it is once again highlighting other sovereign borrowers – in particular Hungary and Paraguay – with prospects for a similar upgrade.

A plunging country risk score illustrates how the problems are still mounting for Africa’s largest economy.

They’re cheering in Bratislava as changing country-risk perceptions make Slovakia the safer option.

Country risk scores for many of the large emerging markets (EMs) continued to fall in the first months of the year. Risk scores have now reached levels that do not preclude another global shock if China hits the skids.

Malaysia has been hit by political scandal and economic woes, but ECR experts believe it should begin to recover this year.

The sovereign is still high risk, but is improving in Euromoney’s country risk survey, underpinned by the recent election results.

The sovereign improved last year, but experts have doubts over its economic prospects, and there are political risks from possible snap elections in the summer.

Ljubljana is a happier place these days, overcoming the banking and political crisis weighing on its prospects. Investors should take note: Slovenia is one of several smaller European countries making a comeback.

Political tension and violence have marred Côte d'Ivoire for decades, but peaceful elections and an improving economy have raised expectations.

Moody’s has followed S&P’s lead by downgrading the borrower to junk status in line with its Euromoney country risk score. Other oil producers are at risk, the survey predicts.

Ukraine finished 2015 with a slightly improved score year-on-year, despite seeing turbulence on all fronts in the ECR scoring categories throughout the year. Its score dipped in the fourth quarter of 2015, but ECR experts see some reasons for hope amid the gloom.

Against the backdrop of China’s economic troubles, US Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, depressed commodity prices and the refugee crisis affecting Europe, political risks increased for numerous sovereign borrowers in 2015.

The Baltic state leapfrogged both sovereigns in the global ratings last year, making its credit ratings outdated.

Poland’s sovereign bond spreads are in turmoil, after a shock downgrade by Standard & Poor’s (S&P). The move follows a sharp drop in its political risk score in the latest Euromoney Country Risk (ECR) survey.

Political instability, falling commodity prices, central-bank policy uncertainties and conflict were the principal negative risk factors for investors to contemplate at the turn of the year, as China’s troubles were brought into focus by another round of financial volatility.

Why is Fitch so reticent to upgrade the sovereign when country risk experts and other credit rating agencies say it is overdue?

Of all the frontier markets competing for inward investment, the one-party state is still one of the more attractive prospects.

The likelihood of fresh elections is delaying the structural reforms necessary to prevent the debt burden from snowballing.

Depressed oil prices are sending shockwaves through the Kingdom as it looks at ways to mitigate the macro-fiscal implications.

Euromoney Country Risk experts believe drastic change is in the pipeline for Argentina — but its newly elected government has a fight on its hands to push through economic reforms.

Investors snapped up Angola’s $1.5 billion Eurobond debut this month, and yet the sovereign borrower’s country-risk score has plunged, putting it among the world’s worst default risks.

Access to capital leads to a four-place rise in the rankings for Denmark; improved scores in other economic categories contribute to the shift in Q3 results.

A new government emphasizing Hungarian-style nationalist, unorthodox policies with increased public spending has raised uncertainty over Poland’s risk profile. However, the sovereign borrower is in a strong position and is less indebted than Hungary.

The borrower’s fundamentals are pointing to a downgrade that would chalk up a trio of Brics on junk status based on S&P’s metrics.

Ireland’s triple-B rating is out of line with its improving ranking in Euromoney’s country risk survey. Even Fitch and S&P might need to take action if the trend continues.

The sovereign has climbed another three places in the global rankings compiled by Euromoney Country Risk, and is keeping pace with Bulgaria and Romania.

China’s risk score fell 1.5 points, to below 60 out of 100, for the first time in almost two years in Q3 2015. With Brazil in freefall and a US interest-rate hike on the cards, investor risk is rising for many – but not all – emerging markets (EMs), complicating portfolio selection.

Reforms are expected to gather pace in 2016, boosting the country’s investment prospects.

Further falls in the sovereign’s risk score signal the possibility of a credit rating downgrade.

Two of the earliest victims of the sovereign debt crisis that hit Europe in 2009 are ahead of the pack again – but this time they are leading the way by re-establishing themselves as economic success stories. Euromoney Country Risk’s survey charts the risers and fallers.

The island state has returned to growth earlier than expected in spite of its trade and banking-sector exposures to Greece, after the banking crisis caused a severe macro-economic adjustment.

Far from stabilizing, the sovereign’s economic imbalances and political uncertainties are behind another round of downgrades.

Abenomics had been designed to rescue Japan from its awful deflationary torpor, but the economy is struggling again and its troubles could become a lot worse if China buckles.

The Indian Ocean island seems to have turned the corner and is pushing higher in Euromoney’s country risk survey rankings.

The world’s northernmost borrower is beginning to look like a decent credit again, thanks to stronger financial safeguards and a plan to remove capital controls cementing a recovery now delivering impressive macro-fundamentals.

Only time will tell if snapping up Ukrainian bonds before its creditor negotiations are complete is fortuitous or foolhardy, but what cannot be denied are the enormous risks involved.

Latin America’s largest market and one of its hottest investment prospects only a few years ago is now rocking from a confluence of negative factors undermining creditworthiness.

The glowing appeal of this frontier market is overshadowed by an array of problems, notably stemming from the junta’s resistance to democratic reform.

Euromoney’s crowd-sourcing, survey-based approach to evaluating country risk successfully predicted a similar path for the Philippines two years ago. In addition to these two European borrowers, however, there are a handful of others with longer-term prospects for investors to keep an eye on.

The sovereign is still struggling in Euromoney’s risk survey as economic and fiscal indicators deteriorate, corruption investigations dampen China-sourced foreign investment and a looming general election makes it uncertain whether the new president’s parliamentary backers can produce a majority.

The results of the latest Euromoney Country Risk quarterly survey saw Mexico’s risk score fall 1.49 points. With a score of 60.82, the country now sits at 37th in the global ECR rankings. ECR asked two experts for their opinions on the reasons behind the decline.

Fitch and Moody’s altered the outlooks on their BB-/Ba3 ratings from negative to stable in recent months, but experts taking part in Euromoney’s country risk survey are still to be persuaded.

Data from Euromoney’s survey of country risk suggests economists are increasingly optimistic about the Hungarian economy.

The sovereign has become comparatively safer in Euromoney’s country risk survey as its CIS neighbours find it hard to escape the blow-back from Russia’s meltdown and currency devaluations prompted by the new oil metrics.

The sovereign is one to watch in 2015, and not just because of the eurozone recovery, or conversely its vulnerability to Greece.

Investors opting for the Caribbean region and its various bond offerings as economic growth recovers should beware of the risks involved. For many countries these can still be quite extreme.

Euromoney’s risk experts weigh up the various options as the ‘end-game’ nears.

The Andean nation was riskier than Brazil not so long ago, but has risen through the LatAm rankings and might soon become the second-safest credit in the region behind Chile.

The Brics sovereign is still worrying the risk experts – and its downgrades seem likely to continue.

Emerging markets (EMs) with fiscal and external imbalances, vulnerable to capital outflows – including oil and other commodity producers struggling to balance their budgets – are among the 72 sovereigns downgraded since the end of 2014 by more than 440 economists and other country-risk experts.

A downgraded outlook from rating agency Fitch highlighting the sovereign’s economic difficulties was predicted by its country-risk score trend. Moody’s is lagging behind, but might respond when it reviews the sovereign in June.

A return to the international capital markets in April is whetting the appetite of yield-hungry investors eager to snap up the $1.5 billion Eurobond likely to herald the first in a series of market offerings. But are the sovereign borrower’s risks being ignored?

The credit implications of resolving failed lender Hypo Group Alpe Adria (HGAA) are not what they seem. The upshot is Austria is not about to suffer the same fate as Cyprus, Iceland or Ireland.

Risk experts have become increasingly concerned about prospects for the majority of African sovereign borrowers that are considering issuance in 2015. Will investors demand a premium?

The majority of Central and Eastern European sovereigns have been upgraded by Euromoney's country risk survey since the third quarter of 2014. Hungary is still irking the experts with its heightened political risks, but elsewhere there are still reasons to be cheerful about the region’s prospects.

The sovereign’s risk score is sliding again, raising doubts over its safety.

The sovereign’s risk score has fallen in recent days as lower oil prices add to the Kingdom’s existing economic, political and structural weaknesses.

Russia’s and Venezuela’s plight was predicted by Euromoney’s country risk survey well before the market priced in their deteriorating creditworthiness. Other, similarly ranked oil-producing sovereigns could endure a similar fate.

Economists have been downgrading oil exporters’ risk scores in recent weeks, but there might be worse to come if spot prices and petro-currencies continue to fall.

France’s creditworthiness has continually worsened during the six years since the global financial crisis. The question is whether the rising risk trend will continue into 2015 and will that begin to affect its borrowing costs, which have recently hit record lows.

Romania’s country-risk score improved slightly in the immediate aftermath of the Klaus Iohannis’s surprise election victory, as participating economists cautiously signalled their optimism over the likely policy direction the country might now take.

Peru’s investor safety has come under close scrutiny from economists over the past year, forcing it down to 45th in the global rankings. Although its risk rating remains far better than it was 10 or 15 years ago, several of the country’s economic and political risk indicators have slipped recently, mostly in response to falling minerals prices, weakening production and investment in the mining sector. This, in conjunction with lower state capital spending has pushed GDP growth down to around half the 6%-plus average recorded for the past decade. The resignation of finance minister Luis Miguel Castilla and impending sub-national elections are unsettling the political environment, and there are question marks hanging over corruption in Peru and its institutional strengths – two of the political risk assessment factors scoring fewer than half the points available. Yet the sovereign’s prospects remain favourable, with orthodox policies and large infrastructure projects continuing, including a gas pipeline, new copper and gold mines scheduled to start production over the next few years, and expansion of the Lima metro railway system.

Mexico has continued to find favour among risk experts in recent years and the country’s image as an investment destination is much improved, particularly since its risk rating surpassed Brazil’s last year. On a score of 62 points and lying 37th on Euromoney’s global risk rankings, the sovereign is closing in on tier-2 status, pointing to a future upgrade of its triple-B credit rating. At the heart of Mexico’s improving risk profile is a more stable and consensus-seeking political approach that is encouraging risk experts to raise their scores for government stability, as well as the regulatory and policymaking environment under the presidency of Enrique Peña Nieta, who has been working congenially with opposition parties to pass legislation since 2012. All five of Mexico’s economic risk indicators have enjoyed a rising score trend on the back of an expanding middle class driving a consumer boom, as well as improvements in educational standards and structural reforms boosting cost efficiencies. Removing entry barriers to private investment in oil, gas, electricity and telecoms sectors has bolstered Mexico’s global competitiveness, alongside the benefits of its highly productive maquiladora manufacturing base enjoying duty free access to the US market and solid economic growth.

The time when international fund managers saw Latin America as a homogenous investment call is gone. The days of differentiation are here. And as many of the region’s leading countries look to make the difficult transition from developing to developed economies, their finance ministers are fully aware of the need to create, and tell, their individual investment cases.

One of the most striking performers in Euromoney’s survey, Uruguay has seen its risk score increase by more than any other Latin American sovereign over three years, taking the sovereign to 48th out of 189 countries in the global rankings. Much of that is down to politics, with all six indicators, ranging from non-payment/non-repatriation risk, to policymaking and government stability, on improved score trends. The predominantly agricultural economy faces risks from weakened FDI from Argentina and interrupted capital flows resulting from US liquidity withdrawal. The country’s road network and port facilities remain challenging, too, hindering logistics and preventing its infrastructure scores from rising much above five out of 10. But the economy is still performing admirably, growing by 3.7% year on year during the second quarter after a 4.4% expansion last year. Inflation, likely to exceed 8% in 2014, is a little high for comfort. However, the fiscal and current account deficits (scratching up 3% and 5% of GDP respectively this year) should improve in 2015 in response to a tourism drive and the start-up of export-oriented production from the Montes del Plata industrial complex, a huge wood-pulp investment in Punta Pereira, Colonia.

Paraguay’s claims for an investment-grade rating have been bolstered by a five-place jump in Euromoney’s risk survey this year, taking the sovereign to 80th in the global rankings. Economists are more confident of prospects since the election as president last year of the right-wing Colorado Party candidate Horacio Cartes, a reform-minded businessman, and the emergence of a more dynamic, investment-led economy. Cartes is enduring considerable opposition to the workforce dislocation that comes from reforms. The economy is vulnerable, moreover, to a reliance on cash crops – hence the still comparatively low risk score. Yet having long suffered from corruption, poor transparency, weak institutional underpinnings and inadequate policymaking, the shift in political ethos back to the right following six years of left-wing government has spawned optimism the country will shake off its economic and social challenges. A focus on transport and energy projects has seen Paraguay’s score for its hard infrastructure improve, while low inflation and debt, a current account close to balance and solid reserves epitomise the rewards of a policy approach shining in the shadow of Brazil’s failings.

The darling of Latin America’s bond issuers for many years, Chile remains by far the safest sovereign in the region. Commanding a first-rate score of 77 points out of 100, the business-friendly nation is comparable with safe havens such as New Zealand, Hong Kong and even the US. However, Chile’s macroeconomic scores have slipped since last year. Economic headwinds include reduced demand from China weighing on copper prices – its principal export – and on the peso’s exchange rate, boosting inflation. Investment is also contracting slightly. Yet although economic activity has slowed, 3% growth is still expected for 2014, the current account deficit is narrowing and FX reserves exceed five months of import coverage. Chile’s survey score for government finances remains rock solid and less risky than any of its other economic sub-factors. A strong starting point and a manageable debt profile allow for a small fiscal deficit to arise in 2014/15 without derailing sovereign creditworthiness. Political risk is lower too than any other country in the region, with investors facing limited threats from non-repayment, opaque fiscal accounting or weak institutions.

Colombia had a bumpy path in the previous decade, reflecting the costs and uncertainties of its civil conflict with leftist rebels. Yet the sovereign’s score has lately improved to 58 points and to within a hair’s breadth of Brazil, ranking 42nd on ECR’s global scoreboard. The re-election of president Juan Manuel Santos provides a mandate to deliver peace with the Farc rebels. The sovereign’s brighter outlook rests too on a rising score for its economic outlook, which is higher than Brazil’s, as are its survey scores for monetary policy/currency stability and bank stability. A strong policymaking environment is responsible, with monetary policy enhanced by inflation-targeting and a flexible exchange rate; financial stability benefiting from improved supervision and regulation; and fiscal credibility underpinned by structural sustainability with a fiscal balance rule and tax reform containing the deficit. Admittedly Colombia is as vulnerable to negative shocks as any country and plagued by a depressingly low score for corruption.

The latest results from the Euromoney Country Risk survey point to an unprecedented rise in risk across almost all geographical regions since June, with emerging markets (EMs) taking the biggest hit as doubts over China, the eurozone and US liquidity support weigh heavily on experts’ evaluations.

The rating agency is still holding out on awarding the investment grade Fitch and Moody’s are standing by. Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey explains why.

Paraguay’s rising score in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey reflects a fundamental shift in the political and structural outlook since the new president took office last year.

Euromoney Country Risk’s expert panel identifies corruption as the main political risk factor in most countries in the region, though overall economic risk has fallen since 2011.

US indicators are slowly improving, but Euromoney’s country-risk experts are still not as confident in its creditworthiness compared with the rating agencies. The question is why?

With Ireland’s sovereign yield now comfortably below 2% and risk score continuing to climb, investors have reason to be optimistic over its prospects.

The sovereign’s rising score reflects a fundamental shift in the political and structural outlook since the new president took office last year.

Investors might be worried by the tail-risk implications of the failed Portuguese lender BES but the sovereign is in a much improved state since completing its three-year bailout programme.

The failure of Portuguese lender Banco Espírito Santo (BES) points to lingering fault lines in the financial regulatory framework and knock-on effects for banks outside the EU.

The sovereign’s risk score has been falling for the past two-and-a-half years, culminating in overdue action by Moody’s.

From Estonia to Belarus, many sovereigns have been caught up in a crisis their credit ratings fail to reflect.

The latest results from the ECR survey show emerging markets (EMs) becoming riskier during the first half of this year, in contrast to the increasing safety offered by developed countries across the G10 and an improving eurozone.

Bosnia-Herzegovina is the world’s riskiest sovereign, according to a new model developed to calculate default probabilities, ahead of other high-risk countries such as Belarus, Ukraine and Rwanda.

The rating agency’s upgraded assessments still seem out of line with improving Euromoney Country Risk survey data, market indicators and its own ratings for other sovereigns.

The Asian tiger heads a select group comprising Poland, Israel, Colombia and Uruguay, all resisting the increased investor risks afflicting other EM sovereigns.

Crashing through ECR’s global rankings, the sovereign’s plight underscores the perils of investing on a risky frontier.

Focusing on the larger, fragile EMs has deflected attention away from worrying risk trends afflicting other borrowers.

With faith slowly restored in Brazil, India and Indonesia this year, there is no longer a fragile five of large EMs, leading risk experts to shift focus to the fragility of borrowers in sub-Saharan Africa.

Experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey were ahead of the game in predicting the increased default risk plaguing peripheral, eurozone sovereigns in the wake of the 2008 crisis, and repeatedly so across a range of issuers.

Asia has succumbed to increased risk during the past year, with experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey downgrading scores for the majority of these sovereigns. South Korea is among a handful bucking the trend.

Improved risk scores by Euromoney Country Risk indicate the worst might be over for the debt-distressed eurozone sovereigns, but caution is the buzzword, as many countries are grappling with huge debt burdens, and with question marks still surrounding Greece.

The rise in global risk witnessed in 2013 continued during the first quarter of this year as experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey reassessed the investment prospects of EMs versus their developed-country counterparts.

As the political tensions morph into economic problems for Russia and Ukraine, other regional states are becoming embroiled in the crisis, notably Kazakhstan, which had been improving in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

Rising risk scores since 2013 are providing investors with encouragement that the worst is over for the troubled region. Yet sovereign risk remains heightened in familiar territories, with the Syrian turmoil persisting, leaving Gulf states and Israel as relative oases of safety.

The upward trend in the sovereign’s risk-score has continued since the 2013 elections as the state taps the market for sufficient credit to close a substantial financing gap.

Ambitious plans to transform the island’s tiny stock exchange into international securities market should further strengthen its position as a financial centre

Published in conjunction with Euromoney Country Risk and the Central Bank of Barbados

Central bank governor DeLisle Worrell explains how Barbados has managed to emerge from the global financial crisis stronger and economically more diverse

A robust and vibrant economy is ready to build on its strengths

Barbados is one of the most diverse economies in the Caribbean. It’s certainly the most robust, drawing in revenues from a wide range of industries (tourism, business services, manufacturing, agriculture), which feed into the region’s most politically and economically stable state.

Barbados remains a paragon of stability offering solid growth prospects, a stable low-tax regime and a business-friendly environment

The peso’s plunge precipitating the emerging markets sell-off is bang in line with Argentina’s lowest-scoring economic risk indicator and is a home-grown problem linked to an incoherent economic plan and poor communication.

Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey points to limited regional impact of the crisis in Ukraine, in spite of potential spill-over effects.

The appointment of Matteo Renzi as Italy’s new prime minister highlights the problem of consensus policymaking that has been worrying risk experts for some time.

Despite its political problems, Romania’s improving economic fundamentals justify its higher ranking in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

With EM currencies and assets remaining highly volatile amid the recent market sell-off, we ask three Euromoney Country Risk experts whether a wider economic crisis is on the horizon.

The sovereign is now on a par with Botswana, signalling overdue credit-rating action.

The bad start to 2014 for EMs shows that economic fundamentals still count and should be taken as a warning shot across the bows, writes Johan Krijgsman, of Krijgsman & Associates.

With civil unrest on the streets of Ukraine showing few signs of stopping, we ask four ECR experts if a solution can be found to the divided country’s problems.

Central bank takes action to mitigate a prolonged lira slump.

Sovereign slips six places in ECR rankings before rand sell-off.

Strength of economic recovery exaggerated; Necessary reforms in Brazil are lacking

The peso’s plunge precipitating the emerging markets sell-off is bang in line with its lowest-scoring economic risk indicator, and is a home-grown problem linked to an incoherent economic plan and poor communication.

A toxic combination of large external financing gaps and US liquidity withdrawal has increased the risks of investing in triple-B rated emerging market (EM) sovereigns. With many countries facing elections this year and stalling on structural reforms, economists taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey have placed five of the larger EMs under the microscope.

Global risk continued to rise in 2013, according to the latest results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey. Gloomy analysts remain cautious on the eurozone and the potential impact of the withdrawal of US monetary stimulus on capital flows to emerging market economies.

Victory for the ruling party’s presidential candidate might presage a more orthodox policy line tailored by an IMF programme, but the sovereign’s macro problems remain a concern given the risk of the election result being overturned.

Risk experts had been losing faith in Thailand before its political problems resurfaced.

Peru’s trend rise through ECR’s global rankings has raised the possibility that it, not Mexico, will become the second Latin American country to reach tier-two status in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey, after Chile.

Poland’s secure risk profile is still justified, according to economists and other country-risk experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey. With the sovereign holding steady this year in ECR’s global rankings, and on a longer-term upward trend, its credit ratings should be adjusted upwards.

Identifying countries ripe for an investment-grade rating is a complicated task, with the main rating agencies differing in their assessments of credit risk. Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey highlights several borrowers with bright prospects, having successfully predicted the shift from junk status to investment grade for the Philippines earlier this year.

Qatar remains the safest MENA country while the region’s average risk score in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey slips again during the third quarter, as economists downgrade their views on most countries polled.

The Baltic states’ improving growth prospects are under pressure due to the eurozone’s frailties and their close trade and investment links to Sweden and Russia.

The sovereign’s declining score trend partially reversed at the end of the third quarter of 2013, but the country remains one of the riskiest in the MENA region, both in terms of its political and economic rating.

This quarter it is Latin America and the Caribbean that have taken the biggest hit to their average ECR scores, seemingly in response to the anticipated impact of Fed monetary policy tapering – deferred perhaps, but still on the cards for January – amid weakened commodity prices due to China coming down from its breakneck expansion and the threatened slowdown in US growth spreading south. This has taken place in a quarter in which the LatAm risk dispersion, dividing high-flying Chile from low-ranking Nicaragua, has reached a record 48.6 points.

Middle East scores continue to flounder – doubly so with North Africa included – in light of attenuated risk profiles for low-scoring Syria and Yemen, both riven by instabilities, and with confidence in Bahrain slipping, to highlight the effects of political and social instabilities.

The US factor might be more fear than substance. Within the G10 group of leading industrialized nations, the US is not considered a particularly riskier prospect in spite of its latest political troubles. The world’s biggest economy has slipped to 17th in the rankings, but its score is still higher than at the start of the year.

Experts’ scores also depict a mixed picture for Sub-Saharan African borrowers during Q3, with Angola, Ghana, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Tanzania among those countries whose scores have fallen as economic worries connected to global economic prospects dominate parts of the region.

Other European scores have fallen as the political and economic problems across the region mutate. During the year to date, most parts of Europe – including the eurozone, the high-risk former Soviet Republics (the CIS), led by Moldova, Kazakhstan and Ukraine, and other central and eastern parts of the region, several with governance issues – have witnessed the largest average score declines of any regions of the world.

Across the rest of Asia, Indonesia – one of the worst affected by the currency sell-off along with India – Thailand, Vietnam and one or two other sovereigns are languishing, highlighting the region’s financial imbalances, including its growth and banking-sector vulnerabilities.

More than five years on from the credit crunch that shook the world to its core, tail risks continue to undermine investor returns, according to the latest quarterly results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

More than 400 economists and other experts from a range of financial and other institutions take part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey. They evaluate the risks faced by international investors in more than 180 markets, scoring countries across a range of political, economic and structural criteria. These are added to values for capital access, credit ratings and debt indicators, and aggregated each quarter to provide a total risk score.

The sovereign’s country risk score is still up on a year ago and its ranking unchanged in the ECR survey.

High-risk sovereign rides trend improvement on the back of stabilizing political and security situation, boosting economic prospects.

Notwithstanding the recent rise in its government bond yields, Italy still ranks higher than Spain in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey, despite the country’s uncertain political outlook.

Kenya’s risks have eased since Q2 in response to the calm electoral process in March. However, the rise in Kenya’s ECR score cannot hide the fact the sovereign and its fellow emerging SSA issuers are considered to have high-risk profiles, according to ECR experts – a discrepancy that could soon be factored into the region’s borrowing costs.

Argentina’s fall from grace and Mexico’s dazzling appeal have delivered a record score differential – an outcome that was predictable from score trends that emerged years ago and which is justified on every indicator of risk, according to Euromoney’s Country Risk survey.

ECR experts, led by Irish and Portuguese restructuring, have begun to upgrade bank stability assessments after sharp falls in the indicator scores since the credit crunch five to six years ago. However, the picture is blurred by scores still falling for many at-risk countries amid deep concerns about Cyprus, Malta and Slovenia.

Embattled country leads risk rise in Asia after US monetary shift.

The Netherlands was the worst triple-A eurozone performer in ECR survey for the second quarter.

Botswana has emerged as Africa’s safest economy as a result of South Africa’s deteriorating economic fundamentals and rising political risk, according to the latest results of Euromoney’s Country Risk survey.

Growing public debt and a low reserves buffer leave the sovereign exposed, according to the latest results of Euromoney’s Country Risk survey.

Iceland and Ireland are on the road to recovery, while Portugal, Italy and Spain plunge further into economic malaise, according to analysts participating in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

The economic situation in Iran is likely to deteriorate further as the west steps up its sanctions against the regime, say analysts at the Institute of International Finance.

Rising real wages and consumption have boosted German growth without a corresponding increase in productivity, generating headwinds for economic growth and corporate profitability for years to come, argue analysts at Natixis, the French investment bank.

The wealthier Gulf-based oil and gas producers – underpinned by their strong fiscal and current-account balances – have, in the main, either resisted the plummeting scores seen for Egypt, Tunisia, Libya et al, or still rank comparatively highly for their sovereign safety.

ECR experts remain divided over the perceived risks to banking systems in the MENA region, and with only five of MENA’s 18 countries scoring more than 6.0 out of 10 for this particular risk indicator, it is clear it is not just Europe that has substantial solvency and liquidity issues.

Israel’s score has shown tremendous volatility so far this year, and has slipped four places in the rankings to 33rd, yet overall several of its key indicators have risen.

Country risk continued to increase across the Middle East and North African region during the first half of this year, according to experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey, although the changes in risk scores varied as some countries became safer.

Although the Gulf remains the safest bloc within the MENA region, its six constituent countries still display diverse prospects in terms of the three main categories of risk in Euromoney’s survey (see chart).

The decision by Fitch to strip France of its AAA rating confirms its fall from sovereign grace but the belated move is unlikely to trigger a rise in borrowing costs.

Declining bank-stability scores across Asia in the second quarter of 2013 highlight rising global macroeconomic risks, as the world’s regional growth engine confronts leverage and financial-imbalance risks, say analysts.

A broad rebalancing of country risk perceptions has taken place this year, according to the June results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

Eurozone slide is maintained with the region’s average score hitting a new low in June, as 10 of the 17 participating member states succumb to further score declines during H1 2013.

Two-thirds of the region’s 18 countries have seen increased risk since December, not least because of the failure of Cyprus to recover its score decline following the banking crisis.

Ten of the region’s 18 countries have suffered from score declines since December, led by Egypt and other unstable polities.

The southern continent’s risk build-up is underlined by falling scores for South Africa and Zimbabwe, but many other African bond issuers have resisted the downturn.

Among the G10, six countries – all EU member states – became riskier during H1 2013, one (Germany) was unchanged and four (Canada, Japan, Switzerland and the US) became safer.

Argentina and Venezuela continue long-term score declines; Brazil also slips, but Mexico, Chile, Ecuador and Uruguay lead the improvement to 60% of LatAm’s 20 countries.

Turmoil places onus on whichever administration holds power to rectify economic imbalances.

Economists saw rising levels of country risk among Asian sovereigns in June as investors fled emerging market debt and equity markets, after the US Federal Reserve announced it will unwind its policy of quantitative easing (QE).

High debt levels and declining economic outlook continue to affect region’s risk profile.

Caribbean island receives new IMF loan to avoid default.

The Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovakia and Poland are well-buttressed against contagion from the eurozone crisis, according to the latest quarterly update from Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

With Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey showing improved assessments for much of the Americas and Japan during Q1 2013, it is tempting to believe that the increased global risks seen in recent years are finally abating.

All of the G10 countries, with the notable exception of Sweden, saw their risks rise in 2012, according to the latest results from Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey – and not just because of the problems affecting the debt-ridden eurozone sovereigns.

The eurozone became even riskier in Q3 2012, according to the results of Euromoney’s Country Risk (ECR) survey. Spain, the world’s worst performer in the survey during that period, plummeted 14 places, while Italy and Slovenia registered increased risk too. Core economies Germany and France also got riskier in Q3, according to economists. However, there were signs that the worst might be over for the eurozone as a whole, with its average score deterioration slowing to 0.5 points on average in Q3, less than a third of the previous quarter’s fall.

The eurozone is leading most areas of the world in declining ECR scores, according to Euromoney’s country risk survey. The rise in risk is not as steep as in 2011, but it is a source of anxiety for ECR’s 400 experts.

Country risk analysts saw increased risk in all of the world’s main economic/geographical regions during the first six months of 2012, according to the Q2 2012 results of Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey.

The eurozone enjoys its strongest quarter since March 2010 in the latest results of Euromoney’s country risk survey, as European policymakers finally come to grips with the crisis. But lower scores for Greece and France suggest Europe is not out of the woods yet. Andrew Mortimer reports

Country risk scores deteriorate across the eurozone

Two economists give their view on whether the UK is more deserving of a downgrade than France, as part of a special snapshot from Euromoney Country Risk.

Poland, Hungary, Russia and Bulgaria receive worsening scores for economic risk

The euro crisis has already resulted in the region’s country risk scores falling by a greater margin than the Asian economies in 1997. That’s before any of the countries involved has actually defaulted. Andrew Mortimer asks: how many years will Europe take to recover?

Euromoney country risk - Full results

Country risk rankings are dropping sharply in the Eurozone periphery and across the entire Middle East, including Qatar which had been viewed as relatively immune to the fallout from the Arab Spring. Andrew Mortimer reports.

Economists still consider Senegal to be the riskiest Sub-Saharan issuer of sovereign debt, according to the latest results of the Euromoney Country Risk Africa survey.

The Republic of Cyprus retained its position at the top of the Euromoney Country Risk Central & Eastern European Rankings in March. However, with negative sentiment about Cyprus’s exposure to the Greek financial crisis increasing, questions remain over how long the country will retain its position at number one.

9.0 quake didn’t trip parametric triggers; Reinsurers struggle to absorb losses

Growing demand for Russia’s energy exports should not divert the country from diversifying its economy.

Uncertainty continues to cloud the future of the Gulf region.

The arrival of GCC troops in Bahrain has escalated the security situation in the country to a new level. Senior Bahrain opposition MP Abdul Jalil Khalil, quoted by Reuters, described the crackdown on protesters by Bahraini security forces as a "war of annihilation". The hard-line stance taken by the regime has raised questions about the possibility for the current rulers of Bahrain to reach any kind of agreement with the protesters. As a consequence, Bahrain fell by 5 places in the official Euromoney Country Risk Rankings this week to 41st in the table. This followed the 6.7 point drop witnessed since the protest movement began in February.