The top-five banks in the 2009 Euromoney FX poll remain the same as in 2008 despite big sub-prime losses. As senior FX bankers make clear, a leading position in the market reflects an established set of relationships that aspirant banks find hard to build, whatever their creditworthiness. Lee Oliver reports.

Tarp, Talf, PPIP – what’s an investor to make of it?

With a stable democracy and a business-friendly economic environment, Honduras is making the most of its central location in the Americas.

The impact of the wider financial crisis has forced firms and their corporate clients to re-examine the way they approach their foreign exchange business. A strong sense of realism bodes well for the market. Lee Oliver reports.

Foreign exchange, money markets and rates have returned Deutsche Bank to profitability. Anshu Jain, the firm’s global head of markets, says it’s all down to applying smart solutions to relatively simple products. But don’t be fooled into thinking he’s given up on more complex business. Clive Horwood reports.

Losses in RBS’s investment banking division almost brought down the entire group. Many called for it to be shut down. But John Hourican, the firm’s new head of global banking and markets, believes he is positioning a new-look business to thrive in post-credit crunch markets. Could the cause of RBS’s ills be the hope for its recovery?

Two months in and only $6.4 billion in Talf loans from the $200 billion programme have been taken up. The number of investors lined up to participate is increasing and Ben Bernanke could end up with his $1trillion dream of Talf issuance and a revival of US consumer lending. Issuers need to get on board. But will they?

How many mega-projects can a crippled market handle? Saudi state bodies such as the Public Investment Fund are doing more to help the financing of projects but it might not be enough. Dominic O’Neill reports from Riyadh.

Following the announcement that it intends to raise a jaw-dropping $220 billion from gilt sales to fund the UK’s budget deficit, the Debt Management Office said it would use new methods to distribute bonds to investors. These are the regular use of syndications and the continued use of mini-tenders. We at Euromoney thought it might be helpful to have a visual representation of one innovative suggestion from a reader.

Governments are committed to boosting infrastructure spending, but they must take care on how they do it. Louise Bowman reports.

Higher-cost hydrocarbons and falling exports are separating the state from the economy and destroying its Soviet relics, starting with the banks. Dominic O’Neill reports from Minsk.

CFO Afzal Modak tells Alex Chambers why Garanti is as well positioned as any company to weather the economic downturn and even take advantage of the opportunities it presents.

There are limited IMF funds for ailing emerging economies, available only on stiff terms, and that means serious consequences for those that have lent to them.

Poland has followed Mexico in seeking a precautionary credit line from the IMF. Prime minister Donald Tusk said that the country was interested in a one-year facility for $20.5 billion. The line was created as part of a revamp of the IMF’s lending facilities announced in March. It is a type of insurance policy for strong developing countries. Access is restricted to countries that meet strict criteria. Colombia is also hoping to gain access to the line for $10.4 billion. Mexico’s credit line is for $47 billion.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has launched its first domestic rouble bond in three years. The proceeds of the Rbl5 billion ($439 million) five-year floating-rate issue will finance the EBRD’s existing rouble loan portfolio. In May 2005, the EBRD was the first supranational to tap the Russian domestic bond market.

Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi state investment fund, is considering launching its debut bond soon following a successful deal by the government last month. Details are scarce but the company has hired Citi, Goldman Sachs and RBS to arrange meetings with investors in the US and Europe.

Angola is to issue $8 billion of government bonds this year in the local currency, the kwanza, finance minister Severim de Morais has announced. The bonds, which will have maturities of between one and four years, will be used to finance the country’s reconstruction effort as revenue from oil and diamond exports plunges thanks to lower global prices. Sales will be to banks and to the general public, but it has not been made clear whether foreign banks will be able to buy the paper.

At least two of Kazakhstan’s leading banks are likely to seek a restructuring of their foreign debts in the near future. President Nursultan Nazarbayev has requested that the Kazakh government come up with a plan to help banks resolve their debt repayment problems by the middle of May.

Bahrain is trying to capitalise on Dubai’s demise and reassert its former status as the regional financial hub. The island’s infrastructure may not be sufficient, however.

A stabilized currency and higher oil prices have given a welcome fillip to the Russian capital markets. But could slumping economic growth and soaring non-performing loans undermine the recovery? Guy Norton reports from Moscow.

The potential for huge profits may no longer be there but good opportunities can still be found. Louise Bowman reports.

Gulf International Bank is finalizing a reallocation of shares in the light of a $4.8 billion bailout by its shareholders.

Even before the global financial crisis fully hit home, Citi had recognized that its successful Asia-Pacific division could perform even better with a more centralized structure. Ajay Banga has put that in place, but the full impact of the changes might not be apparent for a while. Elliot Wilson reports.

Gazprom has reopened the Eurobond markets for Russia with a $2.25 billion issue. The 10-year deal, which features a put option after three years, is the largest ever corporate debt offering from the country (although Gazprom should be deemed a quasi-sovereign) and the first public issue since July 2008. The dollar transaction follows a SFr500 million ($429 million) private placement in early April.

When he set up debt adviser Versatus, ex-Nomura leveraged finance chief Michael Berry joined a growing universe of ex-bankers looking to join in the corporate turnaround and restructuring business. He speaks to Louise Bowman.

In 2008, Russia’s property developers were hit by a brutal mix of fast-shrinking funding options and falling customer demand, sending equity valuations into a tailspin. Guy Norton reports from Moscow on the prospects for recovery.

"It’s not the quantum of what we pay people that’s changed. It’s the shape of the payments"

Consider the risks of personal injury if shoe throwing catches on.

David Ricardo’s counsel of despair on the fate of the working man should also give investors food for thought, writes Lincoln Rathnam.

[Sing this to Natasha Bedingfield’s "Pocketful of Sunshine"]

Herbert Stepic, chief executive of Raiffeisen International, the second-biggest lender in central and eastern Europe, remains confident that despite the short-term effects of the global credit crunch and the associated economic slowdown, central and eastern Europe will continue to offer profitable opportunities for those institutions that display a long-term commitment to the region.

"This is my first overseas trip since I ended my presidency," said George W Bush to applause as he began his speech on the future of US-Asian relations at a dinner session on April 18 at the annual Boao Forum for Asia in Hainan province, China.

Euromoney has made it to the big screen!

Never in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s history has central and eastern Europe needed its support so much. President Thomas Mirow explains its plans to head off the threat of depression to Sudip Roy.

"I don’t see why any bank should be allowed to pay it back faster than we do"

Brazilian billionaire Andre Esteves has bought back much more than he sold just three years ago. His BTG-Pactual combination makes him one of the key players in Latin America’s largest market, and leaves UBS nowhere. Esteves outlines his ambitions to Chloe Hayward.

In the second part of Euromoney’s emerging market equity fund manager profiles, Chloe Hayward talks to seven managers and hears what history has taught them and how they plan to find their way through the minefield of commodity-linked stock markets, notably in eastern Europe.

Private equity stepping in to the vacuum left by lending banks.

Emerging markets hedge funds returned more than any other strategy in March, producing 4.63%, according to HFR, ending eight months of continuous losses. In 2008, average losses of emerging market hedge funds were nearly 37%, and investors withdrew $6.7 billion from them in the fourth quarter. Total hedge fund capital committed to emerging markets fell to less than $67 billion globally.

The well-liked and respected George Athanasopoulos has decided to leave Barclays Capital, where he was global head of FX and emerging markets distribution. Sources say Athanasopoulos is working his notice before heading back to Greece; he is expected to stay in the financial industry, most likely working for a buy-side entity.

BBVA: Staying ahead?

The credit market has witnessed a number of unguaranteed deals from European banks. Increasingly, for well-capitalized financial institutions, there are investors willing to put money to work. Perhaps more important, the spread gap between where they can print government-guaranteed deals and issue paper backed purely by their own credit is no longer the yawning gulf it once was.

Nigerian controls endanger foreign investment in Africa as a whole.

Fubon Financial’s chief executive sees no hope at home without intensive consolidation.

During 2008, Henderson Global Investors expanded into the advisory business and Ganesh Rajendra has been hired to drive this part of the business forward. Rajendra last worked at Deutsche Bank, where he was head of European ABS research.

The US Treasury has criticized banks for reducing lending after it bailed them out. The banks say they are doing their best and want to pay government capital back. A row is brewing.

Government interference in Brazil’s loan markets could lead to a new credit bubble, analysts warn. They fear cheap lending through state-owned Banco do Brasil could trigger the country’s own sub-prime crisis as other banks are forced to follow suit in order to remain competitive.

Eddie George’s skills are missed now more than ever.

Trade body representations at the G20 Summit helped reduce the pressure for heavy-handed regulation of hedge funds. Neil Wilson reports.

Latest figures show that new hedge fund launches and the total assets raised were both hit by the economic downturn. Neil Wilson reports.

China’s economic stimulus package offers only a temporary respite from the country’s – and indeed the world’s – current woes, believes Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of consultancy firm RGE Monitor. "We have to think about changing the system of global current account imbalances," he said on a panel discussion at the Boao forum in China, "because we cannot continue with the present system of having the US as the consumer of first and last resort, over-borrowing and over-leveraging, while surplus countries like China are spending less than their income."

In April, MSCI Barra issued a research report: Currency hedging: a free lunch? This immediately reminded me of the mantra one of my old brokers repeated whenever I met him for lunch: "No biz, no fizz." In other words, as we all know and as I used to say, you don’t get nuffing for nuffing. The report is well researched but ultimately somewhat simplistic. So much so, that I was moved to ask if it should be subtitled: Stating the bleeding obvious. In effect, it says that if you hedge, you might increase your risk and might not make as much money as if you didn’t.

Much pressure has been placed on many market participants’ back offices as a result of the rapid expansion in foreign exchange trading volumes over the past few years.

When it was known as the Honda Racing F1 Team, it couldn’t even win a raffle. However, now that it has been relaunched as Brawn GP – with the same drivers, same backroom staff and management – the team is setting the pace in Formula 1. Inevitably, this initial success has attracted a crowd of media-hungry players and reports have suggested that a high-profile company was going to step in as the team’s main sponsor.

Asset manager BlackRock is absorbing $1.5 billion credit manager R3 Capital Management. R3 was founded by former Lehman Brothers executive Rick Rieder. The beleaguered investment bank also sold about $5 billion in assets to R3 to manage last summer in return for a stake that it was later forced to sell under bankruptcy proceedings. In a letter to investors, BlackRock senior management stressed the importance of having the right employees and resources in order to take advantage of increased opportunities in mortgages and structured assets that are trading at distressed levels. The firm also hired Akiva Dickstein from Merrill Lynch to head its mortgage portfolio team and Randy Robertson from Wachovia to co-head its securitized assets team.

IFSL (International Financial Services London) says hedge fund assets could fall another 20% over 2009. A report by the non-profit group suggests that the 30% fall in 2008 would have been bigger had redemptions not been halted, particularly in the US. As those redemptions take place this year, assets will naturally decline further. Falls in assets are a result of both redemptions and investment losses, although IFSL reports that the former had greater impact on asset reduction in Europe, while in the US and Japan negative performance accounted for a bigger proportion.

Pakistan’s president, Asif Ali Zardari, strayed off-message to startling effect during the opening session of the Boao forum for Asia, a conference that aims to be a kind of Davos of the east. After Chinese premier Wen Jiabao opened with a measured discourse on the theme of strength and confidence, essentially reiterating his country’s policies of fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev continued the optimistic mood with his views on the plausibility and desirability of a single Asian currency. Then it was Zardari’s turn. "I had another speech prepared," he began, "but listening to Premier Jiabao speaking about hope... I just felt I would not being doing my duty if I did not bring up the issue of terrorism. Excuse me if I spoil your thought processes today..." Zardari’s brief but passionate speech focused solely on that issue, reminding audience members that he had set up a new forum – with China’s participation – on a recent trip to Japan, and urging them to join the fight. Vietnam’s prime minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, showed solidarity with his Chinese hosts by returning to a procession of platitudes and statistics on FDI and GDP, but Zardari’s plea had at least got the audience talking.

The year of bumper debt issuance continues: after a record start to the year, as reported in February’s Euromoney, that saw more than $30 billion of bonds sold, the trend for large-scale deals from the region’s sovereign borrowers and top companies continues. In April, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa sold $1.5 billion-worth of 10-year notes and Australia’s Suncorp-Metway issued $2.5 billion of government-backed debt. On the sovereign side, Indonesia launched its long-awaited debut global sukuk. The $650 million five-year notes yield 8.8%, providing much cheaper funding for the issuer than the five-year tranche of February’s regular bonds from Indonesia, which yield 10.5%.

With the international debt market still inaccessible for most Colombian corporates, the local market provides a ray of hope.