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May 2009

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LATEST ARTICLES

  • When it was known as the Honda Racing F1 Team, it couldn’t even win a raffle. However, now that it has been relaunched as Brawn GP – with the same drivers, same backroom staff and management – the team is setting the pace in Formula 1. Inevitably, this initial success has attracted a crowd of media-hungry players and reports have suggested that a high-profile company was going to step in as the team’s main sponsor.
  • The imposition of a more stringent global regulatory regime for all financial markets is the talk of the town at the moment. So it is somewhat surprising to discover that the implementation of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (Mifid) in the EU in November 2007 resulted in a huge decrease in the number of FX brokers registered with the FSA.
  • Government interference in Brazil’s loan markets could lead to a new credit bubble, analysts warn. They fear cheap lending through state-owned Banco do Brasil could trigger the country’s own sub-prime crisis as other banks are forced to follow suit in order to remain competitive.
  • Pakistan’s president, Asif Ali Zardari, strayed off-message to startling effect during the opening session of the Boao forum for Asia, a conference that aims to be a kind of Davos of the east. After Chinese premier Wen Jiabao opened with a measured discourse on the theme of strength and confidence, essentially reiterating his country’s policies of fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev continued the optimistic mood with his views on the plausibility and desirability of a single Asian currency. Then it was Zardari’s turn. "I had another speech prepared," he began, "but listening to Premier Jiabao speaking about hope... I just felt I would not being doing my duty if I did not bring up the issue of terrorism. Excuse me if I spoil your thought processes today..." Zardari’s brief but passionate speech focused solely on that issue, reminding audience members that he had set up a new forum – with China’s participation – on a recent trip to Japan, and urging them to join the fight. Vietnam’s prime minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, showed solidarity with his Chinese hosts by returning to a procession of platitudes and statistics on FDI and GDP, but Zardari’s plea had at least got the audience talking.
  • Rating agency treatment of distressed buybacks will make it even harder to salvage value in the battered loan market.
  • Banking: BBVA remains bullish on regional prospects
  • Mexico’s transport and communications ministry, the SCT, is expecting to relaunch its federal highway re-concessions programme within weeks. The Paquete del Pacifico, or Farac II, failed to attract much attention in an initial auction held in early March but this time the government hopes to stimulate interest by splitting the package in two.
  • The US Treasury has criticized banks for reducing lending after it bailed them out. The banks say they are doing their best and want to pay government capital back. A row is brewing.
  • The sale of Pactual could be the first of many disposals of emerging markets assets by banks desperate to raise capital.
  • China’s economic stimulus package offers only a temporary respite from the country’s – and indeed the world’s – current woes, believes Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of consultancy firm RGE Monitor. "We have to think about changing the system of global current account imbalances," he said on a panel discussion at the Boao forum in China, "because we cannot continue with the present system of having the US as the consumer of first and last resort, over-borrowing and over-leveraging, while surplus countries like China are spending less than their income."
  • IFSL (International Financial Services London) says hedge fund assets could fall another 20% over 2009. A report by the non-profit group suggests that the 30% fall in 2008 would have been bigger had redemptions not been halted, particularly in the US. As those redemptions take place this year, assets will naturally decline further. Falls in assets are a result of both redemptions and investment losses, although IFSL reports that the former had greater impact on asset reduction in Europe, while in the US and Japan negative performance accounted for a bigger proportion.
  • The year of bumper debt issuance continues: after a record start to the year, as reported in February’s Euromoney, that saw more than $30 billion of bonds sold, the trend for large-scale deals from the region’s sovereign borrowers and top companies continues. In April, Hong Kong-based Hutchison Whampoa sold $1.5 billion-worth of 10-year notes and Australia’s Suncorp-Metway issued $2.5 billion of government-backed debt. On the sovereign side, Indonesia launched its long-awaited debut global sukuk. The $650 million five-year notes yield 8.8%, providing much cheaper funding for the issuer than the five-year tranche of February’s regular bonds from Indonesia, which yield 10.5%.
  • Nigerian controls endanger foreign investment in Africa as a whole.
  • Eddie George’s skills are missed now more than ever.
  • Fubon Financial’s chief executive sees no hope at home without intensive consolidation.
  • Private equity stepping in to the vacuum left by lending banks.
  • In May the European Central Bank may announce whether it will employ unconventional monetary policy measures. Throughout March speculation built that the ECB would unveil a plan to buy sovereign and even private debt in the secondary market, especially after ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet failed to deny such rumours. As it was, in addition to disappointing the market with just a 25 basis point cut in the key ECB rate to 1.25% in April, Trichet stated that any decision to deploy new non-standard monetary policy tools would be deferred until May.
  • If you want a microcosm of the bad habits global capital got into as the credit crunch hit, go to Brisbane.
  • At first glance, it is not the right time to leave the safety of a large corporation to start up a business alone. But that is exactly what a number of financial professionals are now doing.
  • Hedge funds and banks are backing out of film financing deals because of liquidity issues.
  • Don’t just blame the locals: these are age-old derivatives-based losses.