Germany breached the EU's budget deficit limit of 3% of GDP over the first six months of this year and will almost certainly break the terms of the European stability pact that underpins the euro for the third year in a row. In fact, the government managed to run a 4% budget deficit over the first half of this year, slightly higher than the 3.9% for the end of 2003, federal statistics office Destatis revealed last month.

Country risk index: The latest Euromoney country risk survey, which for the first time incorporates data on perceptions of corruption, reflects continuing upheaval in the Middle East and Africa that is only partly compensated for by a favourable global trade environment.

Banks in Arab countries enjoyed much better results in 2003, especially during the second half. In 2002 earnings fell on the back of weakness in global investment markets, tight margins, and higher provisions. Net profit bounced back in 2003, rising by over 15% for the top 100 Arab banks.

South Africa has built stable macroeconomic foundations since the overthrow of apartheid but its potential as a regional leader is still hampered by corporate rigidities, untapped talent reflected in high unemployment, an Aids epidemic and a failure to attract inward investment.

German savings banks are using credit default swaps to reduce their credit risk concentration for the first time.

Emilio Botín knew that launching a frontal assault on the UK banking market was never going to be a bed of roses. But the 70-year-old chairman of Grupo Santander, Spain's largest bank, and his team were knocked for six by the furore that was unleashed in response to their £8 billion-plus bid for Abbey, the sick man of British banking.

No-one disputes that China's growth rate needed reining in. While investors worry over the possible consequences of a sharp slowdown, most economists believe that, contrary to global historical precedent, the Chinese authorities might have pulled off the trick of a relatively painless cool-down. But serious structural flaws in the economy remain and make China a perilous place to invest.

MBNA Europe's delinked programme should help Europe's ABS issuers to respond to investor demand

By Camilla Palladino

Investors ask tough questions these days about companies' ability to honour their commitments. After all, no-one wants to fall victim to the next corporate scandal. But Toys “R” Us shareholders and bondholders are safe, aren't they? Surely official “spokesanimal” Geoffrey the Giraffe and chums won't let them down.

There's an obvious appeal in linking your brand with the Olympic ethos of excellence and achievement, as the likes of John Hancock, Visa and Greece's own Alpha Bank did at last month's Athens Games. Other sponsorships are harder to work out. Standard Bank of South Africa, for example, is sponsoring a dead whale. Misty is, or was, a southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) that came off second best in a collision with a ship and washed up near Cape Town. As Standard Bank says in a grisly press release: ?Decomposition set in and her rotting 70-ton body became a source of controversy. It was decided to implode the carcass but [residents] persuaded the powers to allow them to remove the rotting flesh to preserve the skeleton.

Russia's economy is roaring up the growth curve but dependence on oil revenues, insufficient diversification into other activities and a growing gap between the well-off and the poor give cause for concern.

Having been heavily overweight on Russia last year, many emerging-market equity investors are now scaling back their positions. Some investors are making a fundamental reassessment of Russian equity risk.

In the lull between the fundamentals of European companies improving and their expanding or acquiring rivals, there's been a dearth of new credit issuance. Hence the interest investors have taken in liability management deals. Investors claim to see good returns from these, but this is by no means guaranteed.

New approaches to instilling high standards have fed into this year's Euromoney corporate governance survey. Initiatives include activist fund managers taking on mandates to advise other investment groups and the incorporation of governance criteria into bond ratings.

To date, securitization in eastern Europe has been a very occasional affair. Turkey has seen a few future-flow transactions, Hungary has a relatively developed domestic mortgage bond market, but you can count the number of other transactions on the fingers of two hands. However, the market should pick up this year.

Nordea has become the first bank anywhere to completely outsource its company equity research. It is unlikely to be the last. The pan-Nordic bank is to cease its own coverage of stocks in the Nordic region and will instead buy research on 200 regional stocks, including buy, sell and hold recommendations, from Standard & Poor's. This follows a similar deal with S&P last year in which Nordea outsourced all its US, European and Asian company equity research coverage to the US group.

Bulgaria cleared an important hurdle when it finally approved the sale of mobile phone company BTC to a consortium led by Advent International in February, in one of the region's largest leveraged buy-outs. Financing for the deal finally closed in June. Gyuri Karady of Baring Private Equity Partners says: ?It tested the legal framework in Bulgaria, and it looks like the rule of law prevailed, which is a triumph for Bulgaria.? Progress on the deal was one of the factors that helped the country obtain an investment-grade rating later in the year.

www.breakingviews.com

European and US equity markets have mirrored each other for years but macro trends could force a decoupling over the next two years. ABN Amro strategists see several factors paving the way for this. The first is that productivity growth in the US and Europe has passed an inflection point. The US has experienced two years of strong productivity growth, but the rate is unlikely to be sustainable. European productivity still has room for improvement.

When it comes to picking stocks and beating the market, women are better, says DigitalLook.com. In a study of 100,000 portfolios from July 2003 to July 2004, the company found the average woman's portfolio grew 10%, beating the FTSE All-Share by 3% and the average man's portfolio by 4%.

Following a period of sustained economic growth, the Caribbean is faced with a new challenge. Recent developments in international legislation might reduce capital inflows and put more pressure on the region's financial sector.

Citigroup's trading on European government bond platform MTS on August 2 has provoked a lot of hyperbole. Citigroup sold e11 billion of European government bonds on MTS and bought e4 billion back a few minutes later at a lower price, making a profit and causing losses at other primary dealers. According to one financial newspaper, Citigroup has "systematically targeted other market makers' mandatory price quotes", which has "shocked rivals". Consequently, the eurozone government bond market has been "thrown into turmoil" and apparently national debt agencies have been forced into a period of "intense soul searching".

A slowdown in the growth of China's asset pool is not deterring new entrants among fund managers.

Argentina is facing an invidious situation. It has strong motives to resolve the default on its foreign debt but its offer could be strangled at birth. Many creditors seem unwilling to accept it. The proposed bond exchange, the world's largest ever, is just the beginning of the road back to international acceptance.

www.breakingviews.com

Wait long enough and anything comes back into fashion. Even flares. Now it's high-yield cash collateralized bonds, or CDOs.

Iran's economic liberalization programme has shown impressive results. But the victory of conservative forces in the latest elections threatens further progress. Meanwhile the country's banks are incapable of funding its corporations, which are turning instead to the capital markets.

You're a populist left-wing politician in South America. Your country's elite doesn't like you, and Wall Street is scathing. Your reputation could do with a bit of help. What do you do? Why, take out an advertisement in the New York press, of course. The trend started in July, when an advert appeared in the New York Times. "Argentina," it blared: "A responsible country, a responsible proposal". A list of the great and the good followed, attesting to Argentina's "sincere and realistic proposal to creditors" (see Argentina's creditors brace for lowball offer). U2's Bono, Mikhail Gorbachev and actors Emma Thompson and Viggo Mortensen were prominent.

The appointment of former deputy central bank governor Jammaz Al-Suhaimi as chairman of Saudi Arabia's Capital Markets Authority looks set to accelerate the liberalization and broadening of the kingdom's financial markets.