Macaskill on Markets
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Wall Street’s Trump party could end in a hangover
US banks will get a trading and dealmaking boost from Trump’s re-election, but rising Treasury yields could pose challenges. -
Sideways: Timing is everything at Deutsche Bank
Former credit trader Shikha Gupta discovers that a verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it is written on. -
Macaskill on markets: In the year of equities, derivatives are key
It is turning out to be an equities year for the big investment banks, as fixed income revenues fall or stall and fees from dealmaking recover slowly.
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A US climate bill filled with green credits will create business for banks and provide relief from the backlash against ESG products.
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West Virginia state treasurer Riley Moore has opened another front in a campaign by Republican officials in the US against banks that promote ESG policies.
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HSBC Asset Management’s head of responsible investing has had it up to here with consultants and regulators lecturing him on climate change risk.
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An odd legal case trying to pin the blame for Credit Suisse additional tier-1 (AT1) bond losses on former chief executive Brady Dougan and other veteran managers could complicate the task of recovering losses for holders of $17 billion of bonds that were wiped out in the takeover by UBS.
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Veteran banker Tom Montag is to join the board of Goldman Sachs in a bid to bolster support for embattled chief executive David Solomon. Weak second quarter earnings could make this task harder.
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Could trading of US sovereign credit default swaps trigger a global systemic meltdown? Probably not, but default swap shenanigans aren’t helping to calm jittery markets.
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The bank has started the process of choosing a successor to CEO James Gorman just as it tries to settle an investigation into its equity block trading practices. This could pose a challenge for Ted Pick.
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JPMorgan’s AI model to interpret central bank messaging came out just as it emerged that Jerome Powell had been pranked into discussing policy with Russian provocateurs. Euromoney’s distinctly obvious heuristics model (D’Oh!) might be needed.
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Relative winners after a year of interest rate hikes include Bank of America and Citigroup. Losers are led by regional US banks, while alternative asset managers argue that higher rates present a historic opportunity.
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Michael Klein can’t be expected to ‘devote significant time and attention’ to the unlikely prospect that UBS will allow a CS First Boston spin-off without being paid. Greensill-style invoices for Klein’s theoretical future services could be the answer.
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Interest rate risk management has been complicated by the fall in yields after the US bailout of SVB’s depositors. Clients may feel that hedging chiefly benefits Wall Street dealers rather than themselves.
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Goldman Sachs likes to mix it up when it comes to choosing peer banks for market share comparisons.
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Commodity trading could deliver further hefty profits for banks, led by Goldman Sachs, but there are multiple risks as well as opportunities for dealers.
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The UK broadcaster’s chair Richard Sharp is familiar with accusations of conflicts of interest from his time at Goldman Sachs.
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Goldman Sachs might wonder if the time is coming to rebrand from being Wall Street’s Bank of Dave (Solomon).
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FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried faces the full wrath of US authorities, as rival agencies compete to make the most hyperbolic charges against the former crypto exchange head. Death by metaphor could be his provisional sentence.
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The gating of Blackstone’s $69 billion private real estate fund Breit highlights the risks in semi-liquid investment vehicles, even ones that perform strongly. Pitching US private market exposure to European and Asian retail investors may be slowed by the setback.
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Euromoney’s Mystic Maca looks into what’s in store next year and sees some big Wall Street reshuffles.