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LATEST ARTICLES
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Policymakers around the world risk catastrophe unless they turn off the electronic printing presses and accept the pain of rebalancing their budgets, investor and author Jim Rogers has warned.
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Debate rages over whether the US will implement Basel III, amid fierce domestic lobbying, while a partial implementation of the framework detracts from Basel’s original mission: to reduce regulatory arbitrage and global systemic risk. Nevertheless, the US case against Basel can’t be dismissed.
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A short guide to the regulation – who it affects and how it impacts them.
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China’s new government must push through reforms to slow the country’s economic growth within the next two to three years or its rapidly rising debt levels will get out of control, a leading financial academic has told RBS.
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Regulators must speed up their efforts to rehabilitate the securitization market – one of the best routes to revive lending activity in Europe – or risk killing it. But, at best, regulators are sending mixed signals.
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There has been a welcome change for currency investors since the start of the year as the correlations between emerging market (EM) currencies have dropped to levels last seen before the eruption of the financial crisis.
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Europe’s leaders should be praised, not berated for their hard-nosed approach to Cyprus. The immediate outlook for the island’s economy and banking sector appears bleak but for the wider eurozone this episode will eventually be seen as an important milestone on the road to stability.
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One of the architects of plans to ring-fence UK banks’ retail operations from their investment arms says it will create the world’s most transparent, consistent and robust regulatory regime and make Britain a global destination for capital.
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The prolonged sovereign debt crisis in Europe has left many doubting the single currency can ever work without deeper fiscal union, and the creation of the so-called European Redemption Fund. If Germany agrees to pick up the tab – the only crisis circuit-breaker in town if the ECB sticks strictly to its mandate – here’s how the pooling of liabilities might work.
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The effect of the proposed regulation of swaps under the Dodd-Frank Act could push investors towards the futures market, leaving corporates and asset managers with imperfectly hedged positions.
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With new investments in high-tech infrastructure, LNG exports and a 20-year healthcare and IT plan, Qatar is aggressively expanding its economy to ensure its regional relevance in the decades to come. But finding new growth drivers is easier said than done.
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While European Union proposals to limit the time corporates have to make payments in commercial transactions will bring relief to some suppliers, many buyers will face higher debt and lower liquidity. Supply chain finance could be a practical and effective solution to managing working capital efficiently under the EU late payments directive, says Ugur Bitiren, Director, Corporate Advisory at RBS.
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Concerns are mounting the US will partially implement or stall the introduction of Basel III giving its banks and corporates a competitive advantage. Sherif Lotfi, Managing Director, Corporate Advisory at RBS, argues that impacts arising from one set of rules need to be considered alongside those of others before the full effect of regulatory changes can be judged.
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The euro has displayed remarkable resilience for a currency that has in effect been broken up by the deal hammered out by the troika of the EU, ECB and IMF to rescue Cyprus, but the single currency might face headwinds as a result of the action as investors question the consistency of policy.
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The UK faces a crisis in corporate cash-hoarding – depressing growth and investment – with echoes of the post-Asia crisis malaise. The recent budget is no game-changer for corporate investment but offers a ray of hope.
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Much of the eurozone economy is in hot water, with corporates complaining about a lack of access to attractively priced capital, but one market in particular has bucked the trend: Germany.
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A surprising Basel Committee proposal – a new capital charge for interest-rate risk held in the banking book – is set to challenge banks’ business models and will limit arbitrage opportunities. Bankers will be caught off-guard by this costly proposal, which some say ignores the fundamental difference between banks’ trading and banking books.
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Low yields on European bonds, which are helping companies raise record amounts of debt at favourable prices, are unsustainable and fixed income investors risk losing out when the markets normalise, says Jan de Ruiter, Country Executive of RBS Netherlands.
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Moody’s attempt to improve the transparency and predictability of its credit ratings should be welcomed. But is it high time the agency dropped the pretence of default-signalling when, like its rivals, the ratings have sometimes been more about measuring loss risk than an accurate gauge of credit default?
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German companies are raising record amounts of cash in the bond markets as they capitalise on global demand to diversify funding.The long-term result could be a permanent change in corporate Germany’s funding model and a strong base for future growth, says Ingrid Hengster, RBS Country Head, Germany, Switzerland and Austria.
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Britain’s monetary and fiscal policy appears increasingly impotent after four years of flat-lining growth and stubborn inflation. To end its economic malaise the UK requires radical supply-side reforms that create the conditions for business to thrive, not further stimulus. Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS explains.
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There is no magic formula that would cut Italian debt without triggering a civil uprising or worse: further boost popular support for sovereign default. A combination of measures – privatization, tax reform and cleaning up the corrupt state leviathan – is needed. But few are holding their breath.
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Considerable uncertainty is vexing derivatives players amid a raft of questions over the Dodd-Frank regime. The exact details of the rules pertaining to margins, trading, cross-border dealings and the Volcker rule remain ambiguous, with final rulings yet to be published. No one can predict the net cost of this new regulation but derivatives players are still quaking in their boots.
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Sanjay Mathur, Managing Director & Head of Economics Research, Asia Pacific ex-Japan, at RBS, believes that fears of currency wars are steeped in political posturing, rather than economic reality, and that any managed depreciations by central banks will only be effective in the short term.
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The ECB has become a prisoner of politicians and markets through its commitment to buy the sovereign bonds of struggling eurozone members, Otmar Issing, one of the euro’s main architects, has told RBS.
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China desperately needs better quality urbanization, with a people-orientated strategy, through reforms to social welfare programmes and the so-called hukou system, the household registration process. Without urgent redress, the rapid urbanization drive threatens to sow the seeds of social instability and exacerbate the divide between the rich and poor.
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If the mainstream parties don’t reform now, they face much worse later, says Alberto Gallo, Head of European Macro Credit Research at RBS
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Banks that are desperate to reduce costs are cutting their IT budgets across the board, but the one growth area for technology vendors is in compliance systems. The rapid speed and growth in the number of global transactions combined with a growing number of watch-lists have caused banks’ operational costs for sanctions compliance to sky-rocket.