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LATEST ARTICLES
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The CFTC is close to finalizing long-awaited rules for FX derivatives that will herald a seismic shift to trading these instruments on SEFs – but those already trading on SEFs are frustrated with teething problems and unintended consequences, including illiquidity and extraterritoriality concerns.
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A new concept of holding orders to tackle latency arbitrage will be trialled for pauses of at least three milliseconds on USD/MXN trades on Thomson Reuters Matching, just weeks after rival EBS completed the roll-out of its latency floor.
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Latin American commodity-linked exchange rates are increasingly driven by individual domestic macro issues, especially inflation/deflation, than external factors, say analysts.
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This week’s comments from US Fed chair Janet Yellen bring the prospect of earlier-than-expected US rate hikes, and with it a potentially broader relief for FX markets characterized by a sideways-moving USD, falling volatilities and marginal carry plays.
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Dismayed by the media coverage of the FX fixing controversy as the new Li[e]bor, which suggests the fixing practice of FX dealers, exposed to principal risk for large orders, constitutes an open-and-shut case of outright manipulation and is a new controversy? Well, continue reading.
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Markets director Paul Fisher clarifies discussions that took place over trading around fixings at meetings of the Bank of England FX committee subgroup, but acknowledges severity of market-rigging allegations.
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Enduring strength in the euro might derail any nascent recovery.
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While OTP and Raiffeisen are vulnerable to FX losses and a slowdown in Russia and Ukraine, the impact should be manageable, though there are some exceptions.
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Although current account deterioration, persistent capital outflows and the Ukraine crisis would seem to weaken rouble, the central bank’s flexible FX regime should keep the currency out of turmoil, say analysts.
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The longstanding one-way bet on USDCNY has been in disarray, but worse might be to come, as China looks to its FX regime to cope with credit issues, and likely defaults this year, threatening volatility in the structured-product market.
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Euromoney Country RiskThe peso’s plunge precipitating the emerging markets sell-off is bang in line with Argentina’s lowest-scoring economic risk indicator and is a home-grown problem linked to an incoherent economic plan and poor communication.
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ESMA has had frequent discussions over the definition of liquidity during the past three years and is mindful of the need to monitor the impact regulations such as Mifid II could have on liquidity on the FX markets, its executive-director tells the Association for Financial Markets in Europe.
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A shift in the political landscape in favour of pragmatists for the 2015 elections will trigger a slew of economic reforms to correct Argentina’s structural imbalances, Martín Redrado, the former central bank governor, and Miguel Kiguel, former finance secretary, tell Euromoney.
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The scale of Ukraine’s challenge to correct economic balances is staggering, even if a political consensus is reached that would see an IMF support package. What’s more, markets might be understating sovereign default risk given strict debt covenants in the 2015 Russian-backed dollar bond that is sure to be used in a regional chess game, say analysts.
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Although market players discern substantial differences between the fragile-five economies – notably in their current-account profiles – they remain, as a group, especially vulnerable to domestic and international market shocks, says bearish analysts.
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A shock policy-driven fall in the onshore spot rate has ignited speculation that a widening of the exchange-rate band is on the cards, while others are unsure the 'two-way' volatility presages a structural shift.
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Nigerian central bank independence passed away this week, according to traders, after a long battle with government officials that culminated in the downfall of the celebrated reformer Lamido Sanusi.
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The addition of JPMorgan and Citi to start-up trading platform ParFX marks the acceleration of the platform’s growth as it plans to open to the buy side in the summer.
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Global macro trends will normalize, boosting volatility and FX returns, argue analysts, despite the unflattering returns of FX hedge funds, the fall in AUM of currency-specific funds last year – even as the industry received bumper inflows – and recent high-profile failures.
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Amid litigation fears and calls for greater communication transparency, financial institutions have imposed heavy restrictions on traders’ electronic communications. However, social trading is here to stay and new platforms, such as Saxo Bank’s TradingFloor.com portal, are capitalizing on the gap in the market.
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Emerging markets (EMs) are showing greater differentiation in risk correlations, despite the media hype, but notable risk correlations persist elsewhere for currency markets, especially economies tied to the commodities sector.
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As market doubts grow over the government’s plan to stem the free fall in the cedi, Ghanaian president John Dramani Mahama defends the actions, pledges reforms to rebalance the economy and sounds the alarm over boom/bust commodity cycles.
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As the Bank of England conducts a review into what its officials knew of FX benchmark manipulation, observers call for more robust adherence to trading best practices.
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Given monetary interventions since the financial crisis, FX volatilities have erred on the low side and should remain depressed, challenging easy FX profits. However, the risk premium in emerging market (EM) FX is now trading back in line with equities rather than G10 FX, presenting trading opportunities.
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Sunday’s win in Tokyo’s gubernatorial election for Abe supporter Yoichi Masuzoe was a fillip to the PM’s economic programme, but faltering exports, weak sequential economic data and a peak in output/inflation suggest the yen needs to be much weaker for Abenomics to play out.
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The west African republic’s recent interest-rate hikes and foreign-exchange regulation changes are only short-term measures to halt the free-falling cedi. Structural changes will be needed for meaningful change.
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As more financial scandals continue to emerge, regulators and banks are hoping technology and new internal controls will allow them to get to grips with the rogues. Trading floors might never be the same again.
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The past few days have seen a spike in global markets’ volatility, a broad-based sell-off in many emerging markets’ currencies, and interest rate hikes in India, Turkey, and South Africa, raising fears this rout in the EM world might gather momentum.
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Global current-account rebalancing and exchange-rate misalignments account for the emerging-market rout, according to the Keynesian school of thought that looks at monetary trends and flow of funds.
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CEO’s endorsement big boost to the City; renminbi bond issuance globally at record levels.